USA Crude Oil Stocks Drop Almost 7MM Barrels WoW

In its latest weekly petroleum status report, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) highlighted that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories, excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), decreased by 6.9 million barrels from the week ending October 17 to the week ending October 24.

This EIA report, which was released on October 29 and included data for the week ending October 24, showed that crude oil stocks, not including the SPR, stood at 416.0 million barrels on October 24, 422.8 million barrels on October 17, and 425.5 million barrels on October 25, 2024. The report highlighted that data may not add up to totals due to independent rounding.

Crude oil in the SPR stood at 409.1 million barrels on October 24, 408.6 million barrels on October 17, and 385.8 million barrels on October 25, 2024, the report highlighted. Total petroleum stocks – including crude oil, total motor gasoline, fuel ethanol, kerosene type jet fuel, distillate fuel oil, residual fuel oil, propane/propylene, and other oils – stood at 1.677 billion barrels on October 24, the report revealed. Total petroleum stocks were down 15.4 million barrels week on week and up 43.6 million barrels year on year, the report showed.

“At 416.0 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about six percent below the five year average for this time of year,” the EIA said in its latest weekly petroleum status report.

“Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 5.9 million barrels from last week and are about three percent below the five year average for this time of year. Both finished gasoline and blending components inventories decreased last week,” it added.

“Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 3.4 million barrels last week and are about eight percent below the five year average for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories increased by 2.5 million barrels from last week and are 14 percent above the five year average for this time of year,” it continued.

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 15.2 million barrels per day during the week ending October 24, according to the EIA report, which noted that this was 0.5 million barrels per day less than the previous week’s average.

“Refineries operated at 88.6 percent of their operable capacity last week. Gasoline production decreased last week, still averaging 9.6 million barrels per day,” the EIA added.

“Distillate fuel production decreased by 134,000 barrels per day last week, averaging 4.5 million barrels per day,” it said.

U.S. crude oil imports averaged 5.1 million barrels per day last week, the report noted. This was a decrease of 867,000 barrels per day from the previous week, the EIA report outlined.

“Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged about 5.7 million barrels per day, 5.3 percent less than the same four-week period last year,” the EIA said in the report.

“Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 466,000 barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 109,000 barrels per day,” it added.

Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 20.8 million barrels a day, down by 0.9 percent from the same period last year, the EIA stated in its latest weekly petroleum status report.

“Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged 8.7 million barrels a day, down by 4.2 percent from the same as the last year period,” it added.

“Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 4.0 million barrels a day over the past four weeks, down by 1.5 percent from the same period last year. Jet fuel product supplied was up 7.6 percent compared with the same four-week period last year,” it continued.

Analyst Take

In a Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (SEB) report sent to Rigzone by the SEB team on Thursday, SEB Commodities Analyst Ole R. Hvalbye highlighted that the EIA’s latest weekly petroleum status report “came in bullish, confirming a larger than expected draw across the barrel”.

“Commercial crude inventories fell by 6.9 million barrels last week, far larger than API’s [American Petroleum Institute] already large four million barrel draw from Tuesday night,” Hvalbye said in the report.

“Total crude inventories now stand at 416 million barrels, roughly six percent below the five-year average for this time of year,” he highlighted.

Hvalbye went on to state in the report that gasoline and distillate inventories “both posted steep declines, reinforcing the trend of persistent product tightness”.

“Gasoline fell by 5.9 million barrels (vs. API’s -6.3 million), while diesel dropped 3.4 million barrels (vs. API’s -4.4 million). Both are now below their respective five-year averages, by around three percent for gasoline and eight percent for distillates,” he pointed out.

Hvalbye said in the report that the draws “were driven largely by a sharp drop in crude imports, which fell by 867,000 barrels per day to 5.1 million barrels per day, the lowest in several weeks, alongside slightly weaker refinery runs”.

“Utilization eased to 88.6 percent (unchanged from the week prior), while crude throughput averaged 15.2 million barrels per day, down just over half a million barrels per day. Gasoline and distillate production also declined marginally to 9.6 and 4.5 million barrels per day respectively,” Hvalbye highlighted.

Hvalbye also pointed out in the report that total commercial petroleum inventories, excluding the SPR, “dropped a hefty 15.9 million barrels on the week, confirming that the U.S. market remains tighter than broader global balances suggest”.

“Product supplied, a proxy for demand, averaged 20.8 million barrels per day over the last four weeks, only 0.9 percent below last year’s level. Gasoline demand is running four percent lower year on year, while jet fuel continues to stand out, up 7.6 percent year on year,” he added.

“In short, another week of more-than-normal draws, and particularly the counter seasonal in crude, continues to point to tighter near-term fundamentals, even as global markets remain well supplied,” Hvalbye continued.

“These figures may add a constructive layer for Brent prices, keeping some downside support despite softer macro sentiment,” he went on to state.

To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com