USA Crude Oil Inventories Drop Almost 2MM Barrels WoW

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories, excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), decreased by 1.9 million barrels from the week ending December 19 to the week ending December 26, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) highlighted in its latest weekly petroleum status report.

That report, which was released on December 31 and included data for the week ending December 26, showed that crude oil stocks, not including the SPR, stood at 422.9 million barrels on December 26, 424.8 million barrels on December 19, and 415.6 million barrels on December 27, 2024.

Crude oil in the SPR stood at 413.2 million barrels on December 26, 413.0 million barrels on December 19, and 393.6 million barrels on December 27, 2024, the report revealed. Total petroleum stocks – including crude oil, total motor gasoline, fuel ethanol, kerosene type jet fuel, distillate fuel oil, residual fuel oil, propane/propylene, and other oils – stood at 1.699 billion barrels on December 26, the report showed. Total petroleum stocks were up 10.4 million barrels week on week and up 75.6 million barrels year on year, the report pointed out.

“At 422.9 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about three percent below the five year average for this time of year,” the EIA said in its latest weekly petroleum status report.

“Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 5.8 million barrels from last week and are about two percent above the five year average for this time of year. Both finished gasoline and blending components inventories increased last week,” it added.

“Distillate fuel inventories increased by 5.0 million barrels last week and are about four percent below the five year average for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories increased 0.8 million barrels from last week and are about 27 percent above the five year average for this time of year,” it continued.

The EIA noted in its report that U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 16.8 million barrels per day during the week ending December 26. It highlighted that this was 71,000 barrels per day more than the previous week’s average.

“Refineries operated at 94.7 percent of their operable capacity last week,” the EIA said in its report.

“Gasoline production decreased last week, averaging 9.5 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production decreased by 77,000 barrels per day last week, averaging 5.2 million barrels per day,” it added.

U.S. crude oil imports averaged 5.0 million barrels per day last week, according to the EIA’s report, which outlined that this was a decrease of 1.1 million barrels per day from the previous week.

“Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged about 6.0 million barrels per day, 7.2 percent less than the same four-week period last year,” the EIA said in the report.

“Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 525,000 barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 283,000 barrels per day,” it added.

Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 20.3 million barrels a day, slightly below the same period last year, the EIA stated in its latest weekly petroleum status report.

“Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged 8.8 million barrels a day, up by 0.4 percent from the same as the last year period,” the EIA added.

“Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 3.9 million barrels a day over the past four weeks, up by 0.3 percent from the same period last year. Jet fuel product supplied was down 2.1 percent compared with the same four-week period last year,” it went on to state.

In an oil and gas report sent to Rigzone by the Macquarie team on December 30, Macquarie strategists, including Walt Chancellor, revealed that they were forecasting that U.S. crude inventories would be up by 2.1 million barrels for the week ending December 26.

“This follows a 0.4 million barrels build in the prior week, with the crude balance realizing modestly looser relative to our expectations,” the strategists said in the report.

“For the week ending 12/26, from refineries, we look for a modest reduction in crude runs (-0.1 million barrels per day). Among net imports, we model little change, with exports and imports relatively flat on a nominal basis,” they added.

The strategists warned in the report that “timing of cargoes remains a source of potential volatility in the weekly crude balance”.

“From implied domestic supply (prod.+adj.+transfers), we also look for little change week on week. Rounding out the picture, we anticipate a smaller build (+0.2 million barrels) in SPR stocks for the week ending December 26,” they said.

The strategists also highlighted in their report that, “among products”, they “look for very heavy builds, led by gasoline (+7.7 million barrels) and distillate (+6.5 million barrels), with jet stocks also higher (+1.8 million barrels)”.

“Amidst holiday effects, we model implied demand for these three products at ~13.2 million barrels per day for the week ending December 26,” they added.

“In addition to seasonal/ holiday demand weakness, apparent low levels of refined product exports (amidst fog across the USGC) further contribute to our expectation for large product builds,” the strategists continued.

To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com