Russian oil shipments to India have plunged by two-thirds in November as refiners turn increasingly cautious amid US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil, Moscow’s two largest crude exporters.
Russian crude loaded onto India-bound ships averaged 672,000 barrels per day (bpd) between November 1-17, contracting sharply from October’s 1.88 million bpd, as per Kpler, the global real-time data and analytics provider. Russia’s total loadings across all destinations slipped 28 per cent sequentially to 2.78 million bpd in November.
Notably, nearly half of its loaded tankers are sailing without declared destinations, a sign exporters are scrambling for buyers and sanction-proof routes. Shipments to China and Turkey, two other key customers, too declined last month. Loadings to China fell 47 per cent to 624,000 bpd, and Turkey by 87 per cent to 43,000 bpd.
China, India and Turkey made up for nearly 90 per cent of Russia’s crude exports in October. Since Russian cargoes take about a month to reach India, most November loadings will only arrive in December, after the November 21 deadline for US curbs wind-down period.
Logistical tactics
The urgency to meet the deadline has prompted Indian refiners to curtail fresh orders, impacting loadings, while rushing through previously-contracted cargoes. This got reflected in accelerated arrivals: imports of Russian oil climbed 16 per cent to 1.88 million bpd during November 1-17 compared to the October average.
“Recent tanker activity suggests a notable shift in Russian crude trading behaviour, marked by mid-voyage diversions between India and China and ship-to-ship transfers at unusual locations such as off Mumbai’s coast, far from the typical transfer zones near the Singapore Strait,” said Sumit Ritolia, lead research analyst—refining & modeling at Kpler. “These developments reflect evolving logistical tactics by Russian exporters navigating tightening Western sanctions.”
Moscow’s oil supply network is increasingly using opaque workarounds — deploying sanctioned or shadow-fleet tankers to ship crude on most of its onward journey before transferring it to non-sanctioned ships that can dock at Indian ports, which do not permit sanctioned vessels to berth. In October, 44 per cent of Russian crude was carried on sanctioned tankers, according to the Helsinki-based Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air.
Ritolia said he expects “a noticeable drop” in Russian crude flows to India in the near term, particularly through December and January. “Refiners will likely proceed more cautiously, relying on unsanctioned traders, blended barrels, and more complex logistics to minimise US office of foreign asset control (OFAC) exposure. Russian supply will not disappear but will increasingly move through opaque channels.”
Last month, the US sanctioned Rosneft and Lukoil, which together ship about 3 million barrels per day, including about a third to India. Some Indian refiners have publicly said they will not deal with sanctioned entities.
The Trump administration announced that the sanctions are aimed at curbing Moscow’s revenues and weakening its war effort in Ukraine. New Delhi and Washington have also been negotiating a bilateral trade agreement for months, and energy has emerged as a key bargaining lever. This week, India’s state-run firms signed their first annual contract to buy LPG from US suppliers, covering about a tenth of the country’s import needs.
