Among other things, the Trump administration is insisting that India pivot away from buying Russian oil to put pressure on Moscow to end the Ukraine war, and more recently it has withdrawn the sanctions waiver on Chabahar port in Iran that New Delhi was using to circumvent Pakistan and access Afghanistan and central Asian countries.
President Trump has also shown sudden interest in restoring American control of Bagram airbase in Afghanistan, cryptically warning that “bad things” will happen if it is not handed back to the US. At the same time, the US has shown little concern over a mutual defence pact between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan that directly impacts Israel and India, among other nations.
The tangled geo-political skein is complicated by the residual gap in trade issues now aggravated by the US decision to slap a $100,000 fee on new H-1B visa petitions made outside of the US. The US sees this primarily as an immigration matter but India has long argued that it is a trade issue since the movement of people generates economic activity and windfalls for both countries.
Ahead of his arrival in Washington DC, Goyal said the two countries are “working on the right track”, but US officials, including treasury secretary Scott Bessent, have complained that New Delhi is “stringing the US along” with talks that are never-ending.
The Indian side, for its part, is pointing out that despite President Trump’s claim that there is no trade, or very little trade, between the two countries, the Office of the US Trade Representative’s (USTR) own report shows US goods and services trade with India totalled an estimated $212.3 billion in 2024, up 8.3 per cent ($16.3 billion) from 2023. If it goes down in 2025, the US has itself to blame for initiating a tariff war and compounding it by suffocating travel.
According to USTR figures, total US goods trade (exports plus imports) with India was an estimated $128.9 billion in 2024. US goods exports to India in 2024 were $41.5 billion, up 3 per cent ($1.2 billion) from 2023. US goods imports from India in 2024 totalled $87.3 billion, up 4.5 per cent ($3.8 billion) from 2023. The US goods trade deficit with India was $45.8 billion in 2024, a 5.9 per cent increase ($2.6 billion) over 2023.
US total services trade (exports plus imports) with India totalled an estimated $83.4 billion in 2024. US services exports to India in 2024 were $41.8 billion, up 15.9 per cent ($5.7 billion) from 2023. US services imports from India in 2024 were $41.6 billion, up 15.4 per cent ($5.6 billion) from 2023.
The US services trade surplus with India was $102 million in 2024, compared to a services trade deficit of $76 million in 2023. The US-initiated disruptions in travel, business, student and work visas are expected to affect the services trade, which has been fairly even.
