(BOE Report) – U.S. natural gas futures rose about 1% to a one-week high on Monday on near-record LNG export flows and forecasts for more demand than previously expected over the next two weeks as another winter storm buries the U.S. Northeast in snow.
Gas futures for March delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 4.3 cents, or 1.4%, to $3.090 per million British thermal units, putting the contract on track for its highest close since February 13 for a second day in a row.
In the cash market, average prices at the Waha Hub in the Permian Basin in West Texas remained in negative territory for a record 12th day in a row as pipeline constraints trapped gas in the nation’s biggest oil-producing basin.
Daily Waha prices first closed below zero in 2019. They did so 17 times that year, six times in 2020, once in 2023, a record 49 times in 2024, 39 times in 2025, and 21 times so far this year.
Waha prices have averaged 76 cents per mmBtu so far this year, compared with $1.15 in 2025 and a five-year average (2021-2025) of $2.88.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states has climbed to 108.7 billion cubic feet per day so far in February, up from 106.3 bcfd in January. That compares with a monthly record high of 109.7 bcfd in December.
Despite the winter storm currently battering the U.S. Northeast, meteorologists predicted weather across much of the country would remain mostly near normal through at least March 10.
LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would slide from 137.5 bcfd this week to 130.3 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were higher than LSEG’s outlook on Friday.
There was about 6% less gas in storage than usual during the week ended February 13. Analysts forecast that deficit would drop to around 1% below normal during the week ended February 20 after mild weather and low heating demand allowed utilities to leave more gas in storage than usual for this time of year.
Average gas flows to the nine large U.S. liquefied natural gas export plants have risen to 18.6 bcfd so far in February, up from 17.8 bcfd in January and on track to beat December’s monthly record of 18.5 bcfd.
In LNG news, QatarEnergy/Exxon Mobil’s 2.4-bcfd Golden Pass export plant under construction in Texas kept taking in more feedgas over the weekend as it prepared to produce its first LNG.
The U.S. became the world’s biggest LNG exporter in 2023, surpassing Australia and Qatar, as surging global prices fed demand for more low-cost U.S. gas due in part to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
Around the world, gas was trading near $11 per mmBtu at both the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) benchmark in Europe and the Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) benchmark in Asia.
(Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Jan Harvey)
