US-Iran talks in Geneva focus on nuclear weapons, ballistic missiles

A third round of talks between the U.S. and Iran kicked off in Geneva on Thursday, with Iran under immense pressure to agree a nuclear deal with the States and to curb its nuclear and ballistic missile development programs.

The U.S. has amassed a large military force in the Middle East ahead of the discussions and President Donald Trump warned last week that “bad things” would happen if Iran does not agree to a new nuclear deal.

On the eve of the latest talks in Switzerland, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned Iran’s reluctance to discuss its development of intercontinental ballistic missiles was also a significant stumbling block.

“The negotiations [on Thursday] will be largely focused on the nuclear program, and we hope progress can be made … But it’s also important to remember that Iran refuses – refuses – to talk about ballistic missiles to us or to anyone, and that’s a big problem,” he told reporters Wednesday.

Rubio said that beyond the nuclear program, Iran’s conventional weapons were “solely designed to attack America and attack Americans, if they so choose to do so.  These things have to be addressed.”

Trump alleged in his State of the Union address on Tuesday that Tehran was working on rockets that could “soon” reach the U.S. but did not present evidence for his assertion.

When asked how close Iran was to achieving such weaponry that posed a direct threat to U.S. territory, Rubio said, “clearly they are headed in the pathway to one day being able to develop weapons that could reach the continental U.S. … And the ranges continue to grow every single year exponentially,” he said, calling it an “unsustainable threat.”

The latest round of talks on Thursday is being led by U.S. Envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, while Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi heads up Tehran’s delegation. Oman is mediating the discussions and the residence of the Omani ambassador to the United Nations is expected to be the venue for the talks.

Pressure is certainly mounting on Iran to agree to a deal in which it bows to the U.S.’ demand that it stops efforts to enrich uranium for nuclear weapons.

Iran has previously rejected that demand, and Araghchi has insisted that Iran would “under no circumstances ever develop a nuclear weapon.” Tehran has signaled instead that it’s prepared to make compromises to appease the U.S., however.

Araghchi said Wednesday that a “fair, balanced and equitable deal” was within reach while Esmail Baghaei, spokesman for Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, told Iranian state TV that “Iran has come here with a very reasonable amount of flexibility.” He added that Iran was “entitled to use nuclear energy for peaceful purposes, that’s a right that is recognized.”

Araghchi had told CBS’ “Face the Nation” last Sunday that he was still working on a proposal that would consist of elements that accommodate both sides’ “concerns and interests.” He said the proposal would be discussed in Geneva and both sides will work on a text to try and reach “a fast deal.”

Tehran is desperate for sanctions relief as anti-government protests over the country’s economy and authoritarian leadership continue to rattle the regime. Those protests continued on Thursday with students leading the latest demonstrations across Iranian universities.

Analysts are skeptical that the next 24 hours will lead to a big breakthrough in the impasse between the two sides but said imminent U.S. military action — which could unleash turmoil in the wider Middle East and for oil markets — was not an immediate threat, for now.

Paul Musgrave, associate professor of government at Georgetown University in Qatar, told CNBC that both sides would “reaffirm their core interests” over the next 24 hours.

“On the Iranian side, I have to say that is really straightforward, making sure that the regime is secure, making sure that they have the option legally of pursuing a nuclear weapon, and ensuring that their conventional ballistic missile programme remains intact,” he told CNBC’s Dan Murphy on Thursday.

“On the American side, we have seen a variety of goals expressed, some of which are incompatible with others, from protecting protesters to trying to get rid of the Iranian missiles, to trying to ban Iran from ever having a nuclear weapon. If you’re the Iranian government, you’re probably looking at this and trying to think exactly what do the Americans want out of this?” he added.

“I don’t expect any major breakthrough in the next 24 hours, but in the next 24 hours, I also don’t expect military strikes,” he said.