India is unlikely to face any immediate disruption in oil supplies despite Iran’s reported closure of the Strait of Hormuz, with sufficient crude and fuel inventories in place, officials said, PTI reported.
Indian refiners currently hold crude inventories sufficient for at least 10–15 days, including stocks in tanks and in transit. In addition, fuel stocks can meet 7–10 days of domestic demand, officials said, cushioning the impact of any short-term disruption in the key energy corridor.
Iran’s state media reported on February 28 that the Strait of Hormuz — through which about one-fifth of global oil and gas supplies pass — has been shut in response to US and Israeli strikes. However, officials indicated that any closure is unlikely to last long and that contingency plans are in place if tensions escalate.
Kpler data shows that 2.5–2.7 million barrels per day, or roughly 50 per cent of India’s crude imports, transit through the Strait of Hormuz, mainly from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Kuwait.
Around 60 per cent of India’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports — largely from Qatar and the UAE — also move through the Strait. Nearly all of India’s LPG imports pass through the route, making it particularly sensitive to prolonged disruption.
Officials said that in the event of an extended closure, India could recalibrate sourcing, including increasing purchases from Russia. “India had cut purchases from Russia in response to US pressure, but we can go back to buying from Moscow in case there is disruption in the Middle East,” one official said.
However, transit time would be a factor. While crude from the Middle East reaches India in about five days, shipments from Russia can take up to a month, requiring advance planning. India also has the option of tapping strategic petroleum reserves, which can meet about a week’s requirement.
While crude supplies appear manageable in the near term, LNG markets may become tighter if the closure persists. Unlike crude oil, most LNG volumes are tied to long-term contracts, leaving limited availability in the spot market. Any significant shift by India or China to alternative LNG sources could push up global prices, officials noted.
The immediate impact of the crisis has been visible in oil prices. Brent crude settled at $72.87 per barrel on February 27 after touching an intraday high of $73.54, the highest since July 30, 2025. Prices have risen by over $12 per barrel so far this year amid geopolitical tensions.
Sumit Ritolia, Lead Research Analyst at Kpler, said that while India’s increased reliance on Middle Eastern crude heightens short-term exposure to Hormuz-linked risks, a prolonged full blockade remains unlikely.
“Diversified sourcing, Russian optionality and layered inventory buffers — including strategic petroleum reserves and commercial stocks — materially reduce the risk of sustained physical shortages. The principal near-term vulnerability is price volatility and macro impact, not structural supply insecurity,” Ritolia added.
The government is closely monitoring the situation and working on alternative supply arrangements, officials added.
