Britain is expected to fall short of the progress needed to meet its climate targets over the next decade because it is not growing its supply of clean electricity fast enough, according to the government’s energy system operator.
The latest 10-year forecast of Britain’s carbon emissions by the government-owned body has revealed that by 2035 the UK will be producing almost a third more carbon emissions than in scenarios where it is on track to meet its legally binding climate targets by 2050.
It is the second official warning in the last month that the government’s climate targets are at risk of being derailed after the Committee on Climate Change reported that two-fifths of the emissions reductions needed to meet the UK’s interim climate target by the end of the decade still have significant risks or insufficient plans to deliver them.
The latest forecast report, published by the National Energy System Operator (Neso), represents the operator’s current view of the next 10 years based on the UK’s existing project pipelines and policies to highlight “the difference between where we are heading compared [with] where we need to get to”.
It suggests that the UK will produce 274m tonnes of carbon (MtCO2) by 2035, well above the 185–204MtCO2 range shown in the same year for the Neso scenarios in which the UK meets the government’s net zero target by 2050.
Fintan Slye, the chief executive of Neso, said the energy system’s climate progress “isn’t enough” and the UK would “need to go further and faster, accelerating the rollout of clean energy technologies” to bring about a clean and affordable energy system in the long-term.
“The choices made today will shape the success of each wave of Britain’s transition. That means speeding up the adoption of energy efficiency measures, empowering households and businesses to make informed choices on things like demand flexibility, buying an electric car and switching to low-carbon heating,” Slye said.
The system operator, which was acquired by the government from energy company National Grid last year, said halving the UK’s emissions to about 200MtCO2 would “only be possible by accelerating the mainstream use of low-carbon technologies”, from the UK’s industrial bases through to homes and transport.
However, the Neso’s own data shows that the UK’s growing clean electricity supplies are on track to fall short of the progress needed to reach net zero. The UK is expected to reach 148GW of renewable electricity by 2035, according to the 10 year forecast, but it would need between 170GW and 190GW by this time in scenarios where the UK meets its 2050 climate goals.
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The findings are likely to pile pressure on the government’s plans to boost investment in renewables and more energy efficient homes as its climate plans face growing scrutiny over its climate agenda.
Ed Miliband, the energy secretary, accused politicians who reject net zero policies of betraying future generations in a “state of the climate” address to the House of Commons. The intervention is expected to counter the anti-climate rhetoric of the Conservative party which has vowed to abandon the 2050 net zero target, and Reform UK which pledged to scrap all net zero policies and subsidies for renewable energy.
A government spokesperson said: “This report sets out the need to accelerate the country’s progress to clean power – which is exactly what we are doing by sprinting to clean power by 2030 and delivering the most significant investment in history in clean, homegrown energy that we control.”
“Our actions over the last year have already laid strong foundations for achieving this mission – by approving projects that could power 2m homes, attracting over £40bn in private sector investment, setting up the publicly owned Great British Energy, launching a new golden age of nuclear power, and introducing plans to upgrade millions of homes to cut bills for homeowners and renters,” the spokesperson added.
