The British government should be stockpiling food, according to a leading expert on food policy, as it is not prepared for climate shocks or wars that could cause the population to starve.
Prof Tim Lang of City St George’s, University of London said the UK produced far less food than it needed to feed itself, and as a small island that relied on a few large companies to feed its giant population, it was particularly vulnerable to shocks.
The first UK Food Security Report in December 2021 found the country was 54% food self-sufficient. Other rich countries such as the US, France and Australia are all food self-sufficient, meaning they grow enough food to feed their populations without imports if required.
The UK is one of the least food self-sufficient countries in Europe. The Netherlands, for example, which is densely populated, is at 80%, and Spain is at 75%.
“We’re not thinking about this adequately. We’re ducking it,” Lang said, speaking at the National Farmers’ Union conference in Birmingham.
“The default position that others can feed us is hardwired into the British state system, and indeed into the nature of how agrifood capitalism works in Britain. Others are wiser. Other countries are stockpiling,” he said. “Other countries have much more flexibility in their systems than we do. What we glorify as efficiency is now vulnerability.”
Other countries have emergency stockpiles in case of war, food contamination or climate shocks. Switzerland still has a stockpile sufficient to feed its entire population for three months and is increasing it to a year. The UK government’s advice to households is to have three days’ worth of food in their cupboards.
The government has no plans to improve the UK’s self-sufficiency, and will not set a target for food production. The environment secretary, Emma Reynolds, said: “I am not going to come up with a percentage. I would like us to boost food production at home, particularly in horticulture and in poultry where I think that there are real growth opportunities. But I’m not going to give you a figure.”
Self-sufficiency is likely to be falling; production of wheat, beef, poultry meat and vegetables are all down in the past year.
A small gap in food supplies could have drastic consequences. Experts recently warned that one shock could spark social unrest and even food riots in the UK, because chronic issues had left the food system a “tinderbox”.
Lang’s report for the National Preparedness Commission, published last year, found that the UK’s food system is extremely vulnerable to attack due to its concentration with a few large companies.
It found that the 12,284 supermarkets around the UK are “fed” by just 131 distribution centres.
These were a “sitting duck” for drone or cyber-attacks by malign states, he said: “The nine big retailers account for 94.5% of all retail food. That’s nine companies, using just 131 distribution centres. In drone war, that’s a sitting duck.”
According to his report, Tesco, which provides nearly a third of UK retail food, operates via only 20 distribution centres. He said: “When four of the 10 big retailers account for three-quarters of retail food, if one or two of these megafirms was hit in some way, or their tight system of distribution centres was disrupted, the impact on the public would be considerable.”
Lang’s report also said UK civil defence, which involves the preparedness of the population for shocks caused by war, received in 2021-22 the equivalent of 0.0026% of total defence expenditure. He added: “The reality is that there are no binding UK laws specifying duties on either central or local government to ensure people are fed.”
Brexit has also made the UK more vulnerable to shocks, by reducing the subsidies farmers receive to produce food and making it more difficult to import food from our largest trading partner.
In the three years from January 2021, agrifood imports from the EU fell by a three-year average of 8.71% a year, compared with the previous three-year pre-Brexit period, according to a University of Sussex analysis.
As climate breakdown makes it harder to grow fruit and vegetables in southern Europe and north Africa, due to extreme weather, countries such as the UK which rely heavily on imports for fresh produce will suffer.
According to the UK Health Security Agency, if the UK continues on current land use, climate and agrifood trends, “by 2050, 52% of legumes and 47% of fruit would be imported from climate-vulnerable countries and supply of vegetables, fruit and legumes is projected to fall short of what would be needed to meet UK dietary recommendations”.
This was already experienced in 2023 when bad weather in Spain and north Africa caused a salad and fresh vegetable shortage across the UK. More than 80% of the UK’s fruit and more than half of its vegetables are imported.
Lang said: “Climate change, the floods and droughts, these are part of vulnerabilities to the just-in-time logistics system of the food system. The key finding of my report was that we created a food system in the name of efficiency, which is now inappropriate for where we are, a concentration of big companies dominating, being the choke points. This creates vulnerability. Drone warfare and software dependence make it doubly vulnerable.”
The professor has called for legislation from the government to ensure the food system is made more secure and able to withstand shocks.
“I’d like it to be a food security and resilience act, something that’s clear about the fundamental purpose of food systems,” he said. The food system needed flexibility rather than being a lean, just-in-time system focused on profits alone, he added. “The purpose of food systems, is to feed people. How, what, in what circumstances, if you’re a big commodity producer, is it really feeding people? Is it going to survive when there are shocks?”
Lang also said the UK needed to boost food security and produce more food at home. “We’ve got to build up more production here, not out of petty nationalism, but out of we’ve got good land, good people, good resources, good infrastructure. It’s a crazy misuse of land not to do that. We’re not getting the leadership we need from central government,” he said.
