India is expected to import 1.1 million barrels per day (bpd) of Russian crude in December—volumes that would be sharply down from November and the lowest level in just over three years, as U.S. sanctions on Russia’s top oil producers spooked Indian refiners who scramble to source non-sanctioned Russian supply.
The Russian flows in December would be 1.1 million bpd, down from an estimated 1.84 million bpd in November, according to vessel-tracking data from analytics firm Kpler cited by Bloomberg.
The expected flows in December would be the lowest level of Russian crude that India has imported since November 2022, per the Kpler data.
The U.S. in late October announced sanctions on Russia’s biggest oil producers and exporters, Rosneft and Lukoil, with wind-down deadline set for end-November. The latest U.S. sanctions, the first of the Trump Administration against Russia, upended crude flows to India, Moscow’s second-biggest oil customer after China.
Indian refiners halted imports from the now-sanctioned entities and turned to non-sanctioned Russian supply and alternative cargoes from the Middle East, the Americas, and, to a lesser extent, West Africa, arbitrage permitting.
India’s biggest state-held refiner, Indian Oil Corporation (IOC), has vowed that it would fully comply with international sanctions related to crude oil imports from Russia.
IOC is also looking to buy 24 million barrels of crude oil from the Americas in the first quarter of next year to replace lost Russian supply.
All but two Indian refiners skipped placing orders for Russian crude for December after the U.S. sanctioned Rosneft and Lukoil, sources with knowledge of the purchases told Bloomberg as early as November.
As a whole, Indian refiners pivoted away from Russian crude and were buying additional barrels from the Middle East and the Americas to offset what is expected to be a steep decline in Russian loadings in December and January.
Russian flows could rebound somewhat in early 2026 as non-sanctioned crude will increasingly find its way to Russia’s second-biggest oil buyer, analysts say.
By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com
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