Oil markets have seen thin liquidity and rangebound prices this week, with ICE Brent hovering near $66 a barrel as traders focus almost entirely on the upcoming Trump–Putin meeting in Alaska.
Friday, August 15, 2025
Thin trading liquidity, rangebound price movements, and almost zero interest in any other topic than the Trump-Putin meeting in Alaska have marked this week, with ICE Brent still trading around the $66 per barrel mark. LNG prices have already shed some $0.50/MMBtu this week as gas traders seem to expect some semblance of a deal coming through; however, oil market participants are waiting it out until the very end.
IEA Warns of ‘Bloated’ Crude Oil Markets. Directly contradicting OPEC, the International Energy Agency predicted that global oil supply would rise quickly than expected in 2025-2026, forecasting a 2.5 million b/d output hike this year, up 400,000 b/d compared to its previous outlook, citing OPEC+ unwinding.
Venture Global Wins Key Court Case of 2025. US LNG developer Venture Global (NYSE:VG) has won an arbitration case against global energy major Shell (LON:SHEL) over its alleged failure to start delivering LNG cargoes under a long-term contract starting in 2023, sending the firm’s stock up by a hefty 8%.
India Eyes Russian Barrels Again. India’s state-owned refiners IOC, HPCL and BPCL have reportedly restarted their purchases of Russian oil after discounts for the Russian flagship Urals grade widened to almost -$3 per barrel to Dubai, shedding almost $2 per barrel since July differentials peaked.
US Court Reschedules Citgo Auction. A federal court in Delaware rescheduled the long-anticipated auction of Venezuela-held US refiner Citgo Petroleum, after a unit of activist investor Elliott Investment Management landed a last-minute $8.82 billion offer, surpassing Vitol’s recent $8.45 billion proposal.
Angola’s Oil Dreams Failed to Materialize. Almost two years have passed since Angola quit OPEC; however the African country’s oil production continues to linger around 1.1 million b/d and is set to dip further, with top driller Azule Energy now expecting gas to be the main driver of production growth.
Pemex Gets Former CEO Arrested. Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum said that Carlos Trevino, the former chief executive of state oil company Pemex in 2017-2018, had been arrested in the US and would be deported to Mexico soon on charges of corruption, having allegedly received some $215,000 in bribes.
South Africa Makes U-Turn on Exploration Drilling. The Western Cape High Court in South Africa rescinded the environmental permit granted to French major TotalEnergies (NYSE:TTE) to explore offshore blocks 5,6, and 7, possibly expediting the departure of Total from the African country.
Ukraine Keeps on Droning Russian Refineries. Ukraine struck the 300,000 b/d Volgograd refinery in Russia with drones, having previously targeted Rosneft’s 140,000 b/d Saratov refinery as well as a smaller plant in the southern city of Slavyansk ahead of the Trump-Putin summit in Alaska.
Canada’s M&A Craze Is Heating Up. Canada’s leading oil producer Cenovus Energy (TSO:CVE) is reportedly in talks with the country’s Indigenous groups to jointly take a $1.5 billion stake in peer oil sands producer MEG Energy (TSO:MEG), seeking to halt Strathcona’s $6 billion hostile takeover.
India to Open Up Uranium Mining. The Indian government is set to allow private companies to mine, import, and process uranium, ending a decades-long state monopoly over the nuclear industry as part of Prime Minister Modi’s plan to expand nuclear generation twelve-fold by 2047.
US Launches Anti-Dumping Probe on Solar. The US Commerce Department has initiated anti-dumping duty investigations on solar cell imports from India, Indonesia, and Laos, claiming that Chinese-headquartered firms are using those countries to resell their solar products into the US market.
Zinc Is Starting Its Own Transatlantic Trade. Global trading house Trafigura is reportedly taking large volumes of zinc previously held in LME-registered warehouses in Singapore and shipping them to the United States, with expectations of a potential squeeze helping to push prices above $2,850 per tonne.
Iraq Eyes Syria’s Recovering Markets. Syria’s gradual return to international politics has also prompted neighbouring Iraq to suggest that the two countries rebuild the 300,000 b/d Kirkuk-Baniyas oil pipeline, heavily damaged during the US invasion of Iraq in 2003, as Baghdad aims to find new market outlets.
Chevron Restarts Imports from Venezuela. US oil major Chevron (NYSE:CVX) has loaded its first two cargoes in Venezuela after it received a new sanctions waiver from the Trump administration, with the Beaumont-bound Mediterranean Voyager potentially becoming the first tanker to reach USGC refiners.
By Tom Kool for Oilprice.com
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