President Trump has a bold and ambitious vision to revitalize the American economy – one built on global competitiveness and U.S. strength. But unless we move quicker to finalize new trade agreements, that vision risks being derailed by the growing burden of extended tariffs.
What’s Related
Wholesaler-distributors sit at the center of the supply chain. When costs rise for us, it has a domino effect touching every sector from manufacturing and retail to construction and healthcare. A recent survey conducted by the National Association of Wholesaler-Distributors (NAW) found that despite progress being made on some trade negotiations, tariffs, particularly stacking multiple tariffs on Chinese goods, are driving up costs, disrupting operations, and slowing momentum not just within the supply chain but across the entire economy.
The effects are already visible. One-third of distributors report they are seeing price hikes of 25% or more due to tariffs, and nearly two-thirds expect their cost of goods sold to increase by 10% or more in 2025. While these costs may not have fully hit store shelves yet, they are coming. And when they do, they’ll hit consumers, workers, and businesses, particularly small businesses.
Eric Hoplin
Supply chains are complex, and lead times are long. This is the time of year when retailers place orders for holiday goods. Take something as simple and iconic as an artificial Christmas tree. To ensure they arrive on shelves by November, distributors must place orders months in advance. But with tariffs driving up import costs, many retailers are scaling back or canceling those orders entirely. Even after the announcement of a 90-day tariff war truce between the U.S. and China, the Port of Los Angeles is still seeing a 25% drop in incoming cargo. That means families shopping for trees this holiday season will face fewer choices and steeper prices. And it doesn’t end there. The toys under those trees are also at risk – the National Retail Federation estimates proposed tariffs could drive toy prices up by as much as 56 percent.
Rising costs and declining shipments are also putting millions of jobs at risk. Tariffs on goods — whether targeting China or imposed globally — jeopardize an estimated 3.4 million American jobs.
We’re also seeing a ripple effect across business decisions. Distributors are pulling back on capital investments (37%), slowing hiring (44%), and reducing discretionary spending (60%). These aren’t just statistics; they’re early warning signs. When companies stop investing in growth, freeze new hires, and scale back operations, it slows the entire economy. It’s a drag on job creation, wage gains, and long-term competitiveness – the very goals the President’s economic agenda is designed to achieve.
“Distributors are resilient. We’ve adapted through pandemics, inflation, and global instability. But it’s hard to overcome obstacles when you’re uncertain of what tomorrow brings.”
In the wake of the pandemic, distributors made strategic investments to de-risk their supply chains by shifting sourcing away from China to countries like Vietnam. But now, those efforts are being undermined as the countries they pivoted to face new tariffs. If the goal is to reduce reliance on China, we must give businesses the certainty that these long-term investments are worth it.
Distributors are resilient. We’ve adapted through pandemics, inflation, and global instability. But it’s hard to overcome obstacles when you’re uncertain of what tomorrow brings. Businesses can’t plan, hire, or grow when caught in the crosshairs of trade disputes with no clear end in sight.
That’s why we’re urging the President to finalize long-term trade deals quickly. His economic agenda deserves the strongest foundation possible, which means restoring clarity to the rules of our supply chain. We cannot allow extended tariffs to undercut the momentum we’ve worked so hard to build.
The vision is there. Now it’s time for the art of the deals.
Eric Hoplin is the CEO of the National Association of Wholesaler-Distributors (NAW).
