In an oil and gas report sent to Rigzone late Tuesday by the Macquarie team, Macquarie strategists, including Walt Chancellor, revealed that they are forecasting that U.S. crude inventories will be up by 6.5 million barrels for the week ending February 6.
“This follows a 3.5 million barrel draw in the prior week, with the crude balance again realizing tighter relative to our expectations, albeit amidst significant winter freeze noise,” the strategists said in the report.
“For this week’s stats, we again see significant room for volatility as freeze impacts work their way through the data,” they added.
“In any event, for the week ending 2/6, from refineries, we look for a minimal increase in crude runs, with turnaround timing adding noise to the picture. Among net imports, we model a meaningful increase, with exports lower (-0.5 million barrels per day) and imports higher (+0.2 million barrels per day) on a nominal basis,” they continued.
The strategists noted in the report that timing of cargoes remains a source of potential volatility in the weekly crude balance.
“From implied domestic supply (prod.+adj.+transfers), we look for a large nominal bounce-back (+0.7 million barrels per day) following last week’s freeze impacts,” the Macquarie strategists went on to state.
“Here too, the extent of lingering disruptions adds uncertainty. Rounding out the picture, we anticipate SPR [U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve] stocks unchanged for the week ending 2/6,” they added.
The strategists also noted that, “among products”, they “look for a modest gasoline build (+1.4 million barrels) offset by a distillate draw (-1.4 million barrels), with jet stocks nearly flat (+0.1 million barrels)”.
“We model implied demand for these three products at ~13.8 million barrels per day for the week ending February 6,” they went on to state.
U.S. commercial crude oil inventories, excluding those in the SPR, decreased by 3.5 million barrels from the week ending January 23 to the week ending January 30, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) highlighted in its latest weekly petroleum status report at the time of writing.
According to that report, which was released on February 4 and included data for the week ending January 30, crude oil stocks, not including the SPR, stood at 420.3 million barrels on January 30, 423.8 million barrels on January 23, and 423.8 million barrels on January 31, 2025. Crude oil in the SPR stood at 415.2 million barrels on January 30, 415.0 million barrels on January 23, and 395.1 million barrels on January 31, 2025, the EIA report revealed.
Total petroleum stocks – including crude oil, total motor gasoline, fuel ethanol, kerosene type jet fuel, distillate fuel oil, residual fuel oil, propane/propylene, and other oils – stood at 1.690 billion barrels on January 30, the report highlighted. Total petroleum stocks were down 25.1 million barrels week on week and up 85.1 million barrels year on year, the EIA report pointed out.
In an oil and gas report sent to Rigzone by the Macquarie team prior to the release of the EIA’s February 4 weekly petroleum status report, Macquarie strategists, including Walt Chancellor, revealed that they were forecasting that U.S. crude inventories would increase week on week.
“We are forecasting U.S. crude inventories up 1.9 million barrels for the week ending January 30,” the strategists said in that report.
The EIA’s next weekly petroleum status report is scheduled to be released on February 11. It will include data for the week ending February 6. The report states that it “provides timely information on supply and selected prices of crude oil and principal petroleum products”.
To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
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