In an oil and gas report sent to Rigzone this week by the Macquarie team, Macquarie strategists, including Walt Chancellor, revealed that they are forecasting that U.S. crude inventories will be up by 6.0 million barrels for the week ending November 7.
“This follows a 5.2 million barrel build in the prior week, with the crude balance realizing relatively close to our expectations,” the strategists said in the report.
“For this week’s balance, from refineries, we model a moderate increase in crude runs (+0.4 million barrels per day). Among net imports, we also model an increase, with exports (-1.3 million barrels per day) and imports (-0.6 million barrels per day) lower on a nominal basis,” they added.
The strategists warned in the report that timing of cargoes remains a source of potential volatility in this week’s crude balance.
“From implied domestic supply (prod.+adj.+transfers), we look for a slight reduction (-0.1 million barrels per day) on a nominal basis this week,” the strategists went on to state in the report.
“Rounding out the picture, we anticipate a larger increase (+0.8 million barrels) in SPR [U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve] stocks this week,” they continued.
The Macquarie strategists also noted in the report that, “among products”, they “again look for draws in gasoline (-2.9 million barrels) and distillate (-1.9 million barrels), with jet stocks up (+0.3 million barrels)”.
“We model implied demand for these three products at ~14.5 million barrels per day for the week ending November 7,” the strategists added in the report.
In its latest weekly petroleum status report at the time of writing, which was released on November 5 and included data for the week ending October 31, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) highlighted that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories, excluding those in the SPR, increased by 5.2 million barrels from the week ending October 24 to the week ending October 31.
That EIA report showed that crude oil stocks, not including the SPR, stood at 421.2 million barrels on October 31, 416.0 million barrels on October 24, and 427.7 million barrels on November 1, 2024. Crude oil in the SPR stood at 409.6 million barrels on October 31, 409.1 million barrels on October 24, and 387.2 million barrels on November 1, 2024, the report highlighted.
Total petroleum stocks – including crude oil, total motor gasoline, fuel ethanol, kerosene type jet fuel, distillate fuel oil, residual fuel oil, propane/propylene, and other oils – stood at 1.679 billion barrels on October 31, the EIA report revealed. Total petroleum stocks were up 1.1 million barrels week on week and up 44.5 million barrels year on year, the report showed.
In an oil and gas report sent to Rigzone on November 3 by the Macquarie team, Macquarie strategists, including Walt Chancellor, revealed that they were forecasting that U.S. crude inventories would be up by 6.2 million barrels for the week ending October 31.
At the time of writing, the EIA website shows that the next EIA weekly petroleum status report is scheduled to be released on November 13. It will include data for the week ending November 7.
A banner visible on the EIA website on Thursday states that the EIA “is continuing normal publication schedules and data collection until further notice”. In a statement sent to Rigzone on Monday, the EIA said there is “no change to EIA’s operational status this week” and confirmed that its weekly petroleum status report will be released on Thursday.
In a comment sent to Rigzone today, Aaron Hill, Chief Market Analyst at FP Market, noted that “Washington’s political stalemate concluded yesterday as President Donald Trump signed legislation to end a record-breaking 43-day government shutdown – eclipsing the 35-day impasse in 2018 to become the longest in U.S. history”.
The EIA describes itself on its site as the statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. The organization notes on its site that it collects, analyzes, and disseminates independent and impartial energy information to promote sound policymaking, efficient markets, and public understanding of energy and its interaction with the economy and the environment.
To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
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