Macquarie strategists, including Walt Chancellor, revealed in a report sent to Rigzone late Monday by the Macquarie team that they are forecasting that U.S. crude inventories will be down by 7.0 million barrels for the week ending December 5.
“This follows a 0.6 million barrel build in the prior week, with the crude balance again realizing tight relative to our expectations,” the strategists said in the report.
“For this week’s balance, from refineries, we model a minor increase in crude runs. Among net imports, we model a large reduction, with exports up modestly (+0.3 million barrels per day) and imports meaningfully lower (-0.6 million barrels per day) on a nominal basis,” they added.
The strategists warned in the report that timing of cargoes remains a source of potential volatility in this week’s crude balance.
They went on to state that, “from implied domestic supply (prod.+adj. +transfers)”, they “look for a small decrease (-0.1 million barrels per day) on a nominal basis this week”.
“Rounding out the picture, we anticipate another small increase (+0.2 million barrels) in SPR [Strategic Petroleum Reserve] stocks this week,” they added.
The Macquarie strategists also noted in the report that, “among products”, they “again look for across the board builds (gasoline/ distillate/jet +4.5/+3.9/+0.9 million barrels)”.
“Amidst holiday/seasonal/other effects we see potential for volatility in these figures this week,” they warned.
“We model implied demand for these three products at ~13.7 million barrels per day for the week ending December 5,” the strategists continued.
In its latest weekly petroleum status report at the time of writing, which was released on December 3 and included data for the week ending November 28, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) highlighted that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories, excluding those in the SPR, increased by 0.6 million barrels from the week ending November 21 to the week ending November 28.
That EIA report showed that crude oil stocks, not including the SPR, stood at 427.5 million barrels on November 28, 426.9 million barrels on November 21, and 423.4 million barrels on November 29, 2024. Crude oil in the SPR stood at 411.7 million barrels on November 28, 411.4 million barrels on November 21, and 391.8 million barrels on November 29, 2024, the report highlighted.
Total petroleum stocks – including crude oil, total motor gasoline, fuel ethanol, kerosene type jet fuel, distillate fuel oil, residual fuel oil, propane/propylene, and other oils – stood at 1.687 billion barrels on November 28, the report showed. Total petroleum stocks were up 5.5 million barrels week on week and up 58.5 million barrels year on year, the EIA report showed.
In a Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (SEB) report sent to Rigzone on December 4, which focused on the EIA’s latest weekly petroleum status report at the time of writing, Ole R. Hvalbye, a commodities analyst at the company, noted that “overall”, the EIA report “reinforces a well-supplied U.S. balance”.
“Very strong refinery runs, broad product builds, and slow demand continue to push inventories higher as we have entered December,” he added.
In an oil and gas report sent to Rigzone by the Macquarie team on December 1, Macquarie strategists, including Walt Chancellor, revealed that they were forecasting that U.S. crude inventories would be up 3.3 million barrels for the week ending November 28.
“This follows a 2.8 million barrel build in the prior week, with the crude balance realizing tight relative to our expectations,” the strategists said in that report.
The EIA’s next weekly petroleum status report is scheduled to be released on December 10. It will include data for the week ending December 5. This report is described on the EIA’s website as “the petroleum supply situation in the context of historical information and selected prices”.
To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
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