In an oil and gas report sent to Rigzone late Monday by the Macquarie team, Macquarie strategists, including Walt Chancellor, revealed that they are forecasting that U.S. crude inventories will be up by 5.2 million barrels for the week ending October 10.
“This follows a 3.7 million barrel build in the prior week, with the crude balance realizing relatively close to our expectations,” the strategists said in the report.
“For this week’s balance, from refineries, we model a large reduction in crude runs (-0.6 million barrels per day) following a surprisingly strong print last week,” they added.
“Among net imports, we model a large reduction, with exports higher (+0.2 million barrels per day) and imports lower (-0.6 million barrels per day) on a nominal basis,” they continued.
The strategists warned in the report that timing of cargoes remains a source of potential volatility in this week’s crude balance.
“From implied domestic supply (prod.+adj.+transfers), we look for a moderate increase (+0.5 MBD) on a nominal basis this week,” the strategists went on to state in the report.
“Rounding out the picture, we model a larger increase (+0.5 million barrels) in SPR [Strategic Petroleum Reserve] stocks this week,” they added.
Also in the report, the Macquarie strategists noted that, “among products”, they “look for draws in gasoline (-1.4 million barrels) and distillate (-0.6 million barrels), with a build in jet (+1.1 million barrels)”.
“We model implied demand for these three products at ~14.2 million barrels per day for the week ending October 10,” the strategists stated in the report.
In its latest weekly petroleum status report at the time of writing, which was released on October 8 and includes data for the week ending October 3, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) highlighted that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories, excluding those in the SPR, increased by 3.7 million barrels from the week ending September 26 to the week ending October 3.
That EIA report showed that crude oil stocks, not including the SPR, stood at 420.3 million barrels on October 3, 416.5 million barrels on September 26, and 422.7 million barrels on October 4, 2024. The report highlighted that data may not add up to totals due to independent rounding.
Crude oil in the SPR stood at 407.0 million barrels on October 3, 406.7 million barrels on September 26, and 382.9 million barrels on October 4, 2024, according to that EIA report. Total petroleum stocks – including crude oil, total motor gasoline, fuel ethanol, kerosene type jet fuel, distillate fuel oil, residual fuel oil, propane/propylene, and other oils – stood at 1.694 billion barrels on October 3, the report highlighted. Total petroleum stocks were down 0.9 million barrels week on week and up 52.2 million barrels year on year, the report showed.
In a market analysis sent to Rigzone on Friday, Van Ha Trinh, Financial Markets Strategist at Exness, warned that “underlying inventory figures … point to potentially lower prices”.
“The latest official U.S. report showed that commercial crude oil stockpiles grew by 3.7 million barrels, which was larger than expected. However, the decline in gasoline and distillate stocks could limit the impact,” Trinh added in that analysis.
In an oil and gas report sent to Rigzone on October 6 by the Macquarie team, Macquarie strategists, including Walt Chancellor, revealed that they were forecasting that U.S. crude inventories would be up by 4.3 million barrels for the week ending October 3.
The EIA’s next weekly petroleum status report is scheduled to be released on October 16. It will include data for the week ending October 10.
In its weekly petroleum status report, the EIA describes itself as the independent statistical and analytical agency within the Department of Energy. Although the White House website highlights that the U.S. government is currently shut down, a banner visible on the EIA website on Wednesday states that the EIA “is continuing normal publication schedules and data collection until further notice”.
To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
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