In an oil and gas report sent to Rigzone by the Macquarie team this week, Macquarie strategists, including Walt Chancellor, revealed that they are forecasting that U.S. crude inventories will be up by 2.5 million barrels for the week ending December 12.
“This follows a 1.8 million barrel draw in the prior week, with the crude balance realizing quite loose relative to our expectations amidst an apparent surge in Canadian imports,” the strategists said in the report.
“While our balances point to a much looser fundamental picture this week, we note some potential for a ‘catch-up’ to the tighter side in this week’s data,” they added.
“For this week’s balance, from refineries, we look for a minimal reduction in crude runs. Among net imports, we model a small increase, with exports lower (-0.1 million barrels per day) and imports higher (+0.1 million barrels per day) on a nominal basis,” they continued.
The strategists warned in the report that the timing of cargoes remains a source of potential volatility in this week’s crude balance.
“From implied domestic supply (prod.+adj.+transfers), we look for an increase (+0.4 million barrels per day) on a nominal basis this week,” the strategists went on to note.
“Rounding out the picture, we anticipate another small increase (+0.3 million barrels) in SPR [Strategic Petroleum Reserve] stocks this week,” they added.
The analysts also stated in the report that, “among products”, they “again look for across the board builds (gasoline/ distillate/jet +5.2/+2.0/+1.5 million barrels)”.
“We model implied demand for these three products at ~14.3 million barrels per day for the week ending December 12,” they said.
In its latest weekly petroleum status report at the time of writing, which was released on December 10 and included data for the week ending December 5, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) highlighted that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories, excluding those in the SPR, decreased by 1.8 million barrels from the week ending November 28 to the week ending December 5.
That EIA report showed that crude oil stocks, not including the SPR, stood at 425.7 million barrels on December 5, 427.5 million barrels on November 28, and 422.0 million barrels on December 6, 2024. Crude oil in the SPR stood at 411.9 million barrels on December 5, 411.7 million barrels on November 28, and 392.5 million barrels on December 6, 2024, the report revealed.
Total petroleum stocks – including crude oil, total motor gasoline, fuel ethanol, kerosene type jet fuel, distillate fuel oil, residual fuel oil, propane/propylene, and other oils – stood at 1.684 billion barrels on December 5, the EIA report showed. Total petroleum stocks were down 2.9 million barrels week on week and up 55.8 million barrels year on year, the report pointed out.
Macquarie strategists, including Walt Chancellor, revealed in a report sent to Rigzone on December 8 by the Macquarie team that they were forecasting that U.S. crude inventories would be down by 7.0 million barrels for the week ending December 5.
The EIA’s next weekly petroleum status report is scheduled to be released on December 17. It will include data for the week ending December 12.
The EIA report states that it “provides timely information on supply and selected prices of crude oil and principal petroleum products”, adding that it “provides the industry, press, planners, policymakers, consumers, analysts, and State and local governments with a ready, reliable source of current information”.
On its site, the EIA states that it collects, analyzes, and disseminates independent and impartial energy information to promote sound policymaking, efficient markets, and public understanding of energy and its interaction with the economy and the environment.
Macquarie describes itself on its website as a “global financial services group operating in asset management, retail and business banking, wealth management, as well as advisory, and risk and capital solutions across debt, equity, financial markets and commodities”.
To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
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