In an oil and gas report sent to Rigzone by the Macquarie team late Monday, Macquarie strategists, including Walt Chancellor, revealed that they are forecasting that U.S. crude inventories will be up by 1.3 million barrels for the week ending August 1.
“This follows a 7.7 million barrel build in the prior week, with the crude balance again realizing looser than our expectations,” the strategists said in the report.
“For this week’s crude balance, from refineries, we model a minimal reduction in crude runs. Among net imports, we model a meaningful decrease, with exports up (+0.6 million barrels per day) and imports down (-0.2 million barrels per day) on a nominal basis,” they added.
The strategists stated in the report that timing of cargoes remains a source of potential volatility in this week’s crude balance.
“From implied domestic supply (prod.+adj. +transfers), we look for a reduction (-0.2 million barrels per day) on a nominal basis this week,” the strategists went on to note in the report.
“Rounding out the picture, we anticipate another small build in SPR [Strategic Petroleum Reserve] stocks (+0.3 million barrels) this week,” they added.
The analysts also highlighted in the report that, “among products”, they “look for draws in gasoline (-2.1 million barrels) and jet (-0.6 million barrels), with a build in distillate (+0.8 million barrels)”.
“We model implied demand for these three products at ~14.5 million barrels per day for the week ending August 1,” the strategists said in the Macquarie report.
In its latest weekly petroleum status report at the time of writing, which was released on July 30 and included data for the week ending July 25, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) highlighted that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories, excluding those in the SPR, increased by 7.7 million barrels from the week ending July 18 to the week ending July 25.
Crude oil stocks, not including the SPR, stood at 426.7 million barrels on July 25, 419.0 million barrels on July 18, and 433.0 million barrels on July 26, 2024, that EIA report showed. Crude oil in the SPR stood at 402.7 million barrels on July 25, 402.5 million barrels on July 18, and 375.1 million barrels on July 26, 2024, the EIA report revealed.
Total petroleum stocks – including crude oil, total motor gasoline, fuel ethanol, kerosene type jet fuel, distillate fuel oil, residual fuel oil, propane/propylene, and other oils – stood at 1.660 billion barrels on July 25, the EIA report highlighted. Total petroleum stocks were up 7.3 million barrels week on week and down 3.6 million barrels year on year, the EIA report showed.
In an oil and gas report sent to Rigzone by the Macquarie team on July 28, Macquarie strategists, including Walt Chancellor, revealed that they were forecasting that U.S. crude inventories would be up by 4.7 million barrels for the week ending July 25.
The EIA’s next weekly petroleum status report is scheduled to be released on August 6. It will include data for the week ending August 1. The report states that it provides timely information on supply and selected prices of crude oil and principal petroleum products.
The EIA states on its website that it collects, analyzes, and disseminates independent and impartial energy information to promote sound policymaking, efficient markets, and public understanding of energy and its interaction with the economy and the environment.
It adds on its site that it is “the nation’s premier source of energy information, and, by law, its data, analyses, and forecasts are independent of approval by any other officer or employee of the U.S. government”.
To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
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