In an oil and gas report sent to Rigzone late Monday by the Macquarie team, Macquarie strategists revealed that they are forecasting that U.S. crude inventories will be down 8.1 million barrels for the week ending August 15.
“This follows a 3.0 million barrel build in the prior week, with the crude balance realizing modestly looser than our expectations,” the strategists said in the report.
“For this week’s crude balance, from refineries, we model a slight reduction in crude runs (-0.1 million barrels per day). Among net imports, we model a sharp reduction, with exports higher (+1.1 million barrels per day) and imports lower (-0.8 million barrels per day) on a nominal basis,” they added.
The Macquarie strategists warned in the report that timing of cargoes remains a source of potential volatility in this week’s crude balance.
“From implied domestic supply (prod.+adj.+transfers), we look for an increase (+0.2 million barrels per day) on a nominal basis this week,” the strategists said in the report.
“Rounding out the picture, we anticipate a small increase (+0.2 million barrels) in SPR [Strategic Petroleum Reserve] stocks this week,” they added.
The Macquarie strategists went on to note in the report that, “among products”, they “look for builds in distillate (+2.9 million barrels) and jet (+0.2 million barrels), with a small draw in gasoline (-0.3 million barrels)”.
“We model implied demand for these three products at ~14.3 million barrels per day for the week ending August 15,” the Macquarie strategists added in the report.
In its latest weekly petroleum status report, which was released on August 13 and included data for the week ending August 8, the EIA highlighted that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories, excluding those in the SPR, increased by three million barrels from the week ending August 1 to the week ending August 8.
That EIA report showed that crude oil stocks, not including the SPR, stood at 426.7 million barrels on August 8, 423.7 million barrels on August 1, and 430.7 million barrels on August 9, 2024. Crude oil in the SPR stood at 403.2 million barrels on August 8, 403.0 million barrels on August 1, and 376.5 million barrels on August 9, 2024, the report revealed.
Total petroleum stocks – including crude oil, total motor gasoline, fuel ethanol, kerosene type jet fuel, distillate fuel oil, residual fuel oil, propane/propylene, and other oils – stood at 1.670 billion barrels on August 8, the EIA report highlighted. Total petroleum stocks were up 7.7 million barrels week on week and up 6.9 million barrels year on year, the report showed.
In an oil and gas report sent to Rigzone by the Macquarie team on August 11, Macquarie strategists, including Walt Chancellor, revealed that they were forecasting that U.S. crude inventories would be up by 2.0 million barrels for the week ending August 8.
“This follows a 3.0 million barrel draw in the prior week, with the crude balance realizing tighter than our expectations,” the strategists said in that report.
In an oil report sent to Rigzone by the Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (SEB) team on August 15, which focused on the August 13 weekly petroleum status report, Ole R. Hvalbye, a commodities analyst at the company, highlighted that “total commercial petroleum inventories (crude and products combined, excluding SPR) rose by 7.5 million barrels on the week, bringing total stocks to 1,267 million barrels”.
“While inventories are improving, they remain below historical norms – especially in distillates, where the market remains structurally tight,” Hvalbye said in that report.
The EIA’s next weekly petroleum status report is scheduled to be released on August 20. It will include data for the week ending August 15.
To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
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