In an oil and gas report sent to Rigzone this week by the Macquarie team, Macquarie strategists, including Walt Chancellor, revealed that they are forecasting that U.S. crude inventories will be up by 6.2 million barrels for the week ending October 31.
“This follows a 6.9 million barrel draw in the prior week, with the crude balance realizing significantly tighter than our expectations,” the strategists said in the report.
“For this week’s balance, from refineries, we model a moderate increase in crude runs (+0.4 million barrels per day),” they added.
“Among net imports, we model a large increase, with exports lower (-0.6 million barrels per day) and imports higher (+0.8 million barrels per day) on a nominal basis,” they continued.
In the report, the strategists noted that the timing of cargoes remains a source of potential volatility in this week’s crude balance.
“From implied domestic supply (prod.+adj.+transfers), we look for a bounce (+0.8 million barrels per day) on a nominal basis this week,” the analysts went on to state in the report.
“Rounding out the picture, we anticipate a similar increase (+0.5 million barrels) in SPR [Strategic Petroleum Reserve] stocks this week,” they noted.
The strategists also said in the report that, “among products” they “look for draws in gasoline (-2.5 million barrels) and distillate (-4.7 million barrels), with jet stocks up (+0.8 million barrels)”.
“We model implied demand for these three products at ~14.6 million barrels per day for the week ending October 31,” they added.
In its latest weekly petroleum status report at the time of writing, which was released on October 29 and included data for the week ending October 24, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) highlighted that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories, excluding those in the SPR, decreased by 6.9 million barrels from the week ending October 17 to the week ending October 24.
That EIA report showed that crude oil stocks, not including the SPR, stood at 416.0 million barrels on October 24, 422.8 million barrels on October 17, and 425.5 million barrels on October 25, 2024. The report highlighted that data may not add up to totals due to independent rounding.
Crude oil in the SPR stood at 409.1 million barrels on October 24, 408.6 million barrels on October 17, and 385.8 million barrels on October 25, 2024, the EIA report highlighted. Total petroleum stocks – including crude oil, total motor gasoline, fuel ethanol, kerosene type jet fuel, distillate fuel oil, residual fuel oil, propane/propylene, and other oils – stood at 1.677 billion barrels on October 24, the report revealed. Total petroleum stocks were down 15.4 million barrels week on week and up 43.6 million barrels year on year, the EIA report showed.
In an oil and gas report sent to Rigzone by the Macquarie team on October 27, Macquarie strategists, including Walt Chancellor, revealed that they were forecasting that U.S. crude inventories would be down by 2.4 million barrels for the week ending October 24.
In a Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (SEB) report sent to Rigzone by the SEB team on October 30, SEB Commodities Analyst Ole R. Hvalbye highlighted that the EIA’s latest weekly petroleum status report at the time of writing “came in bullish, confirming a larger than expected draw across the barrel”.
The EIA’s next weekly petroleum status report is scheduled to be released on November 5. It will include data for the week ending October 31.
Although the White House website highlights that the U.S. government has been shut down for more than 35 days, a banner visible on the EIA website on Wednesday states that the EIA “is continuing normal publication schedules and data collection until further notice”.
In a statement sent to Rigzone on Friday, the EIA confirmed that it doesn’t expect any changes to its data publication schedule this week.
The EIA describes itself on its site as the statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. The organization notes on its site that it collects, analyzes, and disseminates independent and impartial energy information to promote sound policymaking, efficient markets, and public understanding of energy and its interaction with the economy and the environment.
To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
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