In an oil and gas report sent to Rigzone late Monday by the Macquarie team, strategists at Macquarie, including Walt Chancellor, revealed that they expect U.S. crude and product draws this week.
“We are forecasting U.S. crude inventories down 3.3 million barrels for the week ending September 19,” the strategists said in the report.
“This follows a 9.3 million barrel draw in the prior week, with the crude balance realizing tighter than our expectations,” the strategists added.
“For this week’s balance, from refineries, we model another reduction in crude runs (-0.2 million barrels per day). Among net imports, we model a large increase, with exports modestly lower (-0.3 million barrels per day) and imports higher (+0.6 million barrels per day) on a nominal basis,” they continued.
The strategists warned in the report that the timing of cargoes remains a source of potential volatility in this week’s crude balance.
“From implied domestic supply (prod.+adj. +transfers), we look for a reduction (-0.2 million barrels per day) on a nominal basis this week. Rounding out the picture, we anticipate a smaller increase (+0.3 million barrels) in SPR [U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve] stocks this week,” the strategists said in the report.
The strategists went on to note in the report that, “among products”, they “look for modest draws across the board (gasoline/ distillate/jet -1.3/-0.6/-0.3 million barrels)”.
“We model implied demand for these three products at ~14.4 million barrels per day for the week ending September 19,” they strategists added in the report.
In its latest weekly petroleum status report at the time of writing, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) highlighted that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories, excluding those in the SPR, decreased by 9.3 million barrels from the week ending September 5 to the week ending September 12.
That EIA report was released on September 17 and included data for the week ending September 12. It showed that crude oil stocks, not including the SPR, stood at 415.4 million barrels on September 9, 424.6 million barrels on September 5, and 417.5 million barrels on September 13, 2024. The report highlighted that data may not add up to totals due to independent rounding.
Crude oil in the SPR stood at 405.7 million barrels on September 12, 405.2 million barrels on September 5, and 380.6 million barrels on September 13, 2024, the report showed. Total petroleum stocks – including crude oil, total motor gasoline, fuel ethanol, kerosene type jet fuel, distillate fuel oil, residual fuel oil, propane/propylene, and other oils – stood at 1.688 billion barrels on September 12, the report highlighted. Total petroleum stocks were up 1.7 million barrels week on week and up 25.0 million barrels year on year, the report pointed out.
In an oil and gas report sent to Rigzone on September 15 by the Macquarie team, Macquarie strategists, including Walt Chancellor, revealed that they were forecasting that U.S. crude inventories would be down by 6.4 million barrels for the week ending September 12.
In a report sent to Rigzone by the Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (SEB) team on Monday, the company’s chief commodities analyst, Bjarne Schieldrop, warned that “if U.S. oil stocks continue higher in Q4, we’ll start to feel … bearish pressure more intensely”.
“U.S. commercial crude and product stocks have been below normal, and below levels from last year as well, all until now. Inventories have been rising since week 10 and steadily faster than the normal seasonal trend and today are finally on par with last year and only 10 million barrels below normal,” Schieldrop added.
“From here to the end of the year is however … the interesting part, as inventories normally decline from now to the end of the year. If U.S. inventories instead continue to rise, then the divergence with normal inventories will be very explicit and help to drive the price lower,” he continued.
“So, keep a keen eye on U.S. commercial inventories in the coming weeks for such a possible divergence,” Schieldrop stated in the report.
The EIA’s next weekly petroleum status report is scheduled to be released on September 24. It will include data for the week ending September 19.
To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
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