SEB Expects OPEC to Cut Production Soon

In a report sent to Rigzone by the Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (SEB) team on Tuesday, SEB Chief Commodities Analyst Bjarne Schieldrop outlined that SEB expects the OPEC group to cut production soon.

“We … expect OPEC to implement cuts to avoid a large increase in inventories in Q1-26,” Schieldrop said in the report.

“The group will probably revert to cuts either at its early December meeting when they discuss production for January or in early January when they discuss production for February,” he added.

“The oil price will likely head yet lower until the group reverts to cuts,” Schieldrop warned.

In the report, Schieldrop highlighted that, in its recently released monthly report, the International Energy Agency (IEA) “estimates that the need for crude oil from OPEC in 2026 will be 25.4 million barrels per day versus production by the group in September of 29.1 million barrels per day”.

“The group thus needs to do some serious cutting at the end of 2025 if it wants to keep the market balanced and avoid inventories from skyrocketing – given that IEA is correct that is,” he added.

“We do however expect OPEC to implement cuts,” Schieldrop highlighted in the SEB report.

“We think OPEC(+) will trim/cut production as needed into 2026 to prevent a huge build-up in global oil stocks and a crash in prices but for now we are still heading lower. Into the $50ies per barrel,” he added.

In a separate SEB report sent to Rigzone on October 7, Schieldrop said “the message from OPEC+ over the [October 4-5] weekend was we are still on a weakening path with rising supply from the group”.

He added, however, that “there is nothing we have seen from the group so far which indicates that they will close their eyes, let the world drown in oil and the oil price crash to $40 per barrel or below”.

Rigzone has contacted OPEC for comment on the SEB reports. At the time of writing, OPEC has not responded to Rigzone.

A statement posted on OPEC’s website on October 5 revealed that Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman “decided to implement a production adjustment of 137,000 barrels per day” in a virtual meeting held that day.

“The eight OPEC+ countries, which previously announced additional voluntary adjustments in April and November 2023, namely Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman met virtually on 5 October 2025, to review global market conditions and outlook,” the statement noted.

“In view of a steady global economic outlook and current healthy market fundamentals, as reflected in the low oil inventories, the eight participating countries decided to implement a production adjustment of 137,000 barrels per day from the 1.65 million barrels per day additional voluntary adjustments announced in April 2023,” it added.

The statement highlighted that this adjustment will be implemented in November. According to a table accompanying the statement, Saudi Arabia and Russia’s adjustment amounts to 41,000 barrels per day, each. Iraq’s comes to 18,000 barrels per day, the UAE’s is 12,000 barrels per day, Kuwait’s is 10,000 barrels per day, Kazakhstan’s is 7,000 barrels per day, Algeria’s is 4,000 barrels per day, and Oman’s is 4,000 barrels per day, the table outlined.

The table highlighted that November 2025 “required production” is 10.061 million barrels per day for Saudi Arabia, 9.532 million barrels per day for Russia, 4.255 million barrels per day for Iraq, 3.399 million barrels per day for the UAE, 2.569 million barrels per day for Kuwait, 1.563 million barrels per day for Kazakhstan, 967,000 barrels per day for Algeria, and 808,000 barrels per day for Oman.

“The 1.65 million barrels per day may be returned in part or in full subject to evolving market conditions and in a gradual manner,” the OPEC statement said.

“The countries will continue to closely monitor and assess market conditions, and in their continuous efforts to support market stability, they reaffirmed the importance of adopting a cautious approach and retaining full flexibility to pause or reverse the additional voluntary production adjustments, including the previously implemented voluntary adjustments of the 2.2 million barrels per day announced in November 2023,” it added.

“The eight OPEC+ countries also noted that this measure will provide an opportunity for the participating countries to accelerate their compensation. The eight countries reiterated their collective commitment to achieve full conformity with the Declaration of Cooperation, including the additional voluntary production adjustments that will be monitored by the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee,” it continued.

“They also confirmed their intention to fully compensate for any overproduced volume since January 2024,” it went on to state.

The OPEC statement also highlighted that the eight OPEC+ countries will hold monthly meetings “to review market conditions, conformity, and compensation”. It added that the eight countries will meet again on November 2.

To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com