Rystad Expects Lower Upstream M&A Activity in 2026

In a market update sent to Rigzone by the Rystad Energy team recently, Rystad noted that global upstream merger and acquisition (M&A) activity is expected to be lower in 2026 than in 2025.

Rystad highlighted in the update that, according to its analysis, “nearly $152 billion worth of opportunities [are] on the market as of January this year”. The company added that “timing and execution will determine whether several mega deals will go through, with numerous high value assets still on the market waiting for the right buyers”.

According to a chart included in the update, which showed annual upstream M&A activity by continent and deal count, global upstream M&A deal value came in at $170 billion in 2025, $204 billion in 2024, $255 billion in 2023, $152 billion in 2022, $184 billion in 2021, $103 billion in 2020, and $154 billion in 2019.

This chart highlighted that it excluded “government mandated deals and production sharing contract awards/expiry”.

Rystad noted in its update that global upstream M&A activity “dipped 17 percent year on year to approximately $170 billion in 2025, with deal count decreasing 12 percent to 466”.

“Consolidation within North American shale plays, LNG investments across U.S. and Argentina, and majors’ spinning off assets in Asia and the UK to form new regional joint ventures emerged as key themes last year,” Rystad said.

“A few key deals across these themes include SM Energy and Civitas’ merger, Cenovus Energy’s acquisition of MEG Energy, a Blackstone-led consortium’s acquisition of a 49.9 percent stake in the Port Arthur LNG phase 2 project from Sempra Infrastructure Partners (SIP), Eni and Petronas merging certain assets in Indonesia and Malaysia, and TotalEnergies merging its UK operations with NeoNext Energy to form NeoNext+,” it added.

In the update, Rystad highlighted that North America led activity in 2025, “accounting for more than $112 billion, or 66 percent, of total deal value”.

The company said a “similar regression was seen across most regions”, noting that deal value in Africa dropped 57 percent year on year to $6 billion and that Europe saw a 24 percent year on year decrease to around $10 billion. The Middle East recorded a 65 percent fall to nearly $4 billion, Rystad said in the update, adding that Oceania saw a 96 percent drop to around $435 million and that Russia observed a 25 percent decrease to nearly $750 million.

“This overall global decline is primarily attributed to low and volatile oil prices during 2025 that had a lasting negative impact on the buyer-seller spread,” Rystad said in the update.

“Brent prices declined from around $79 per barrel in January last year to around $65 per barrel in May, surged back to more than $70 per barrel in June and July, and finally settled around $63 per barrel by the end of December,” it highlighted.

“During the same time, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) prices started last year at $75 per barrel and settled around $58 per barrel in December,” it continued.

Rystad went on to point out in the update that M&A activity only increased in Asia and South America.

“Deal value in Asia more than tripled to $18 billion, driven by the Eni and Petronas joint-venture formation, while deal value in South America increased 71 percent year on year to $18.3 billion on the back of several LNG and Vaca Muerta focused deals in Argentina,” it said.

In the update, Atul Raina, Rystad Energy Vice President, Oil and Gas M&A, said, “Rystad Energy expects North America to remain the clear anchor for upstream M&A activity in 2026, with deal flow increasingly shaped by a new phase of a ‘merger of equals’ consolidation among small- and mid-cap listed U.S. shale producers”.

“This is further supported by ample private E&P capital yet to be deployed, ongoing consolidation in Canada’s Montney shale, and rising interest in gas and LNG-linked assets – particularly from Asian buyers seeking long-term security of supply,” Raina added.

By contrast, international M&A outlook remains uneven, Raina said in the update.

“While the pipeline of opportunities is sizeable, activity is concentrated around a small number of high-value and often complex transactions, limiting broader deal momentum,” Raina added.

“National oil companies from the Middle East, Asia, and South America are likely to be among more active participants, reflecting their continued appetite for scale and international exposure at a time when many IOCs remain selective,” Raina continued.

In a statement sent to Rigzone on Wednesday by Enverus, Enverus subsidiary Enverus Intelligence Research (EIR) stated that, “after a midyear slowdown, U.S. upstream M&A regained momentum in 4Q25, closing with $23.5 billion in announced deals and pushing full-year 2025 activity to $65 billion”.

“The rebound reflects a deeper bench of motivated buyers including refunded private equity teams, increased use of securitized financing, and new international entrants all competing for scarce assets,” EIR added in the statement.

In a statement sent to Rigzone back in October 2025, EIR noted that, “after a hot start to the year”, U.S. upstream mergers and acquisitions “slid into a slump in the third quarter, with deal value dropping to $9.7 billion, marking the third straight quarterly decline”.

“Persistently low crude prices have kept many buyers on the bench, particularly for oil-weighted private equity-backed oil and gas exits that fueled much of the activity in the recent past,” EIR added in that statement.

To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com