Russia stands to both gain and lose from war in the Middle East, with the Kremlin boosted by rising oil prices and attention diverted from Ukraine, but facing a reputational hit for its inability to help a key ally.
Here’s a look at how Russia is faring as a result of the war:
Russia’s oil and gas revenues dipped to a five-year low in 2025, as Western sanctions and weaker global prices weighed on sales.
The Iran war could reverse the trend.
Global prices shot past $100 a barrel this week for the first time since 2022 — before softening — while the spot price of Russia’s Urals blend, which trades at a slightly lower price, was up approximately 60 percent at one point.
Every $11-per-barrel increase in oil prices above what Russia has budgeted for could generate an additional $28 billion by the end of the year, the pro-Kremlin Izvestia newspaper reported.
The de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz, choking deliveries from the Gulf states, had made Russian supplies logistically easier.
Indian imports of Russian oil are running at around 1.2 million barrels per day, Sumit Ritolia, an analyst at Kpler said, well above the pre-war forecast of 800,000-850,000.
However, the increase in prices will not immediately rescue Russia from its budgetary woes.
Having run deficits for the past four years, Russia has drained more than half the liquid assets of its rainy-day savings fund paying for the Ukraine war.
At the moment, it is obliged to divert any windfall from oil price rises to replenish it and even at $70 a barrel for Urals, Russia would only reduce its annual budget deficit by 0.1 percent of GDP, Izvestia reported.
“Unless oil prices stay higher for longer and the ruble weakens significantly, the Kremlin’s budget problems are here to stay,” Alexander Kolyandr, a research fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) said in an article.
Moscow has also struggled to sell supplies beyond Asian markets due to sanctions.
The European Union banned maritime imports of Russian crude in 2022, while pipeline exports to Hungary and Slovakia have been effectively blocked since January due to damage to the Druzhba oil pipeline via Ukraine.
Terje Aasland, the energy minister of Norway, not an EU member, said last week he expected soaring prices to reopen a debate inside the bloc about a ban on Russian gas imports, set to come into effect in 2027.
President Vladimir Putin on Monday offered to supply oil to Europe should it reverse on sanctions, but only on a “long-term” basis and “free from political pressure.”
A weakened ally?
Russia has strengthened its ties with Iran since launching its Ukraine offensive, with the two boosting trade and Tehran giving Moscow blueprints for drones that Moscow uses to pound Ukrainian cities.
Iran and Russia signed a broad cooperation agreement in January last year, in which they both agreed to counter common threats.
But, as was the case with its ally Venezuela, Russia has few options to help Iran militarily.
“The image of Russia in Iran is inevitably suffering,” said Ivan Bocharov, an analyst at the Russian International Affairs Council.
In an interview with the Lenta.RU news outlet, Bocharov said that the elite and general public have noticed Russia did not provide direct support.
“This undermines trust,” he said, describing the conflict as “not in Russia’s interests”.
“Even if the Iranian regime manages to cling on, the fighting will end up damaging Russian interests and jeopardising its projects in the region,” said analyst Nikita Smagin, in an article for the Carnegie Politika magazine.
Moscow has numerous investments planned in Iran, among them a $25 billion nuclear power plant earmarked for construction in the southern Hormozgan region.
These plans and others could become a “waste of time” if Iran is plagued by long-term instability, he said, while any government that replaces Iran’s clerical rulers could pivot away from Moscow.
Focus shifts from Ukraine
The Iran conflict has diverted global attention away from Russia’s assault on Ukraine, and forced Kyiv’s Western allies to shift resources to the Middle East.
This has the potential to weaken Ukraine’s position, to Moscow’s benefit.
The Kremlin said Tuesday there was no date or venue for a next round of talks between Moscow, Kyiv and Washington.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has acknowledged a long war could hit vital air defence supplies for his forces, as Washington diverts them to the Gulf.
