Russian crude shipments in January made up the smallest portion of India’s oil imports since late 2022, according to data from industry sources, while Middle Eastern supplies rose to their highest share over the same period.
India, the world’s third-biggest oil importer and consumer, ramped up purchases of discounted Russian oil shunned by some Western nations in the wake of Moscow’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, with volumes topping 2 million barrels per day in some months.
However, Western sanctions over the war and pressure to clinch a trade deal with the U.S. have forced New Delhi to scale back Russian oil purchases, the data showed. And China has, since November, replaced India as Russia’s top buyer of seaborne crude.
India imported about 1.1 million barrels per day of Russian crude last month, the lowest since November 2022, with Moscow’s share in overall oil imports declining to 21.2 per cent, the smallest share since October 2022, according to the data.
January imports from Russia fell by 23.5 per cent from December and by about a third compared to a year earlier, the data showed.
Import levels are likely to fall further to an average of 1 million to 1.2 million bpd in February and around 800,000 bpd in March, said Sumit Ritola, lead research analyst, refining and modelling at Kpler. “February numbers may appear slightly lower due to timing, as some end-month cargoes discharge in the following month,” he said, adding that Kpler expects Russian flows to India to gradually decline in the medium term rather than stop completely.
To make up for the lower Russian oil volumes, Indian refiners tapped alternative grades from the Middle East, South American countries and Western nations, the data showed.
Middle Eastern oil accounted for about 55 per cent of India’s overall imports in January while the share of Latin American grades rose to a 12-month high of about 10 per cent, the data showed.
“February month-to-date data already shows Saudi Arabia regaining its position as India’s top supplier, with imports tracking at a new all-time high,” Ritola said.
Lower purchases of Russian oil raised the share of OPEC oil in India’s crude imports to an 11-month high in January, the data showed. Washington had ramped up import tariffs on goods from India over its Russian oil purchases. But under an interim trade deal, the U.S. has reduced the tariff rate to 18 per cent and removed a 25 per cent punitive duty, saying New Delhi had agreed to stop buying from Moscow.
The Trump administration also wants India to boost energy purchases from the U.S. and potentially Venezuela.>
