The clock is ticking for India-bound tankers carrying millions of barrels of crude from blacklisted Russian suppliers Rosneft PJSC and Lukoil PJSC, with a wind-down period for US sanctions set to end this Friday.
At least 7.7 million barrels of Russia’s flagship Urals crude linked to the two sanctioned producers are set to reach India’s shores after the US restrictions take effect on Nov. 21, according to data from Kpler Ltd. That raises questions on whether the crude will be able to discharge smoothly, given the deadline.
The data showed most of the tankers are heading either to Reliance Industries Ltd.’s Jamnagar refinery or Rosneft-linked Nayara Energy Ltd.’s Vadinar port. Delivery dates range from the end of November and into December. Destinations can change during a ship’s voyage.
Oil traders are keeping close tabs on shipments of sanctioned Russian oil to major buyer India to gauge its near-term demand for alternatives. New Delhi has been under pressure from Washington, which says the purchases help fund Moscow’s war in Ukraine.
Five of India’s seven refiners, including Reliance, had earlier said they would completely stop taking delivery of Russian crude after Nov. 21. State-run Indian Oil Corp. will continue buying non-sanctioned grades, while Nayara — which relies entirely on Russian supplies — is still lifting cargoes.
Meanwhile, it remains unclear if Indian companies have sought any exemptions from the US to continue buying some crude parcels from Rosneft or Lukoil after the Friday deadline. Earlier in November, Hungary won an exemption on procurement of Russian oil and gas and the US has also extended a waiver for some Lukoil transactions.
Starting Friday, four of Russia’s top producers — accounting for as much as 80 per cent of the country’s exports to India — would be under sanction, leaving counterparties at risk of secondary sanctions.
Should the ships fail to arrive by Nov. 21, they could idle off India’s shores while they consider their next moves, which can include ship-to-ship transfers to other tankers and diversions to new destinations such as the waters off Malaysia or even further to China.
Below is a table of the India-bound vessels laden with Urals:
