New Delhi: Russian crude arrivals in India are set to rebound sharply in November after holding steady last month with refiners likely to rush landing of contracted cargoes before the November 21 deadline for US sanctions wind-down period covering Rosneft and Lukoil.
India imported 1.62 million barrels per day (mbd) of Russian crude in October, almost unchanged from September, according to Kpler, a global real-time data and analytics provider.
Volumes are expected to rise in November since ships headed for India loaded 1.74 mbd at Russian ports in October, up from 1.69 mbd in September. The voyage to India takes 25–30 days, meaning most October-loaded cargoes will arrive before the wind-down period expires. Cargoes from non-sanctioned entities can continue flowing beyond the deadline with limited risk.
“Following the sanctions (effective 21 November 2025), we observed accelerated Russian crude arrivals ahead of the deadline,” said Sumit Ritolia, lead research analyst, refining and modeling at Kpler. “This was primarily achieved through front-loaded scheduling and quicker vessel turnarounds.”
Russian crude loadings bound for China plunged nearly 30 per cent month-on-month to 1 mbd in October, signalling weakening demand from Chinese buyers. Loadings to Turkey also slipped, down 8 per cent to 349,000 barrels per day (bpd). Russia’s overall crude loadings in October fell 5 per cent to 3.6 mbd.
What surprised the market was the near-tripling of US crude supplies to India in October. US shipments jumped to 568,000 bpd from 207,000 bpd in September, making the US India’s fourth-largest supplier, behind Russia (1.62 mbd), Iraq (826,000 bpd) and Saudi Arabia (669,000 bpd). The surge in US flows largely displaced shipments from the UAE, which slipped to 363,000 bpd from 581,000 bpd in September.
“Given the 45–55 day voyage time, the spike (in US crude imports) was not sanctions-driven,” said Ritolia. “The increase was economics-led, supported by a strong arbitrage window, a wider Brent–WTI spread, and weak Chinese demand that made WTI Midland competitive on a delivered basis.”
WTI is the US crude benchmark, and a wider spread between WTI and Brent or Dubai–Oman makes US barrels more competitive in the Indian market. A lower spread, however, isn’t sufficient to offset higher shipping costs between the US and India.
The October surge lifted the share of US in India’s crude import basket to 11.8 per cent, behind Russia (33.6 per cent), Iraq (17.2 per cent), and Saudi Arabia (13.9 per cent). UAE fell to 7.5 per cent.
Ritolia estimates US shipments to moderate in November to 450,000–500,000 bpd, still well above the year-to-date average of around 300,000 bpd. He also expects a notable dip in Russian crude imports in December–January as US sanctions begin to bite.
Multiple Indian refiners have said they would comply with US sanctions on Russian crude suppliers, imposed last month by the Trump administration to curb Moscow’s revenues and weaken its war effort in Ukraine. New Delhi and Washington have been negotiating a trade deal for months with energy emerging as a key bargaining lever. India has also expressed interest in raising energy imports from the US.
