After a brief February setback, Russian crude is expected to reclaim its position as India’s largest oil source, Reuters reported, citing industry analysts. Iraq had overtaken Moscow last month, but easing US sanctions and recent Middle East disruptions point to a rapid rebound for Russian barrels.
Indian refiners had already been cutting Russian imports since December. February shipments fell 32 per cent year-on-year to about 1 million barrels per day, roughly half the peak seen in June 2025. The decline helped India secure an interim trade deal with Washington, while increasing reliance on Middle Eastern crude.
Middle East imports surge amid Russian slowdown
In February, imports from Iraq reached a two-year high of 1.18 million barrels per day, while Saudi shipments climbed to nearly 998,000 bpd, the strongest since December 2021, Reuters sources showed. Overall, the Middle East’s share of India’s crude baskjumped to nearly 59 per cent, the highest since August 2022.
Russian barrels bouncing back
Despite February’s dip, Russia remains central to India’s crude strategy.
“Russian barrels remain central to India’s crude import strategy,” said Sumit Ritolia, lead research analyst at ship tracking firm Kpler. Shipments have already rebounded to around 1.8 million bpd and could rise to 2-2.2 million bpd in March following the US-Israeli conflict with Iran, which disrupted flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
Diversifying suppliers
Government officials said India’s reliance on Middle Eastern oil has eased amid the disruptions, with roughly 70 per cent of imports now coming from other sources. February data also showed a sharp rise in Brazilian oil imports, making the South American nation the fourth-largest supplier after the United Arab Emirates.
India’s crude import pattern reflects a balancing act: managing geopolitical risks while keeping supplies steady for the world’s third-largest oil consumer.
