New Delhi: A $10 per barrel increase in average crude oil prices could raise India’s net oil imports by $13–14 billion and widen the current account deficit (CAD) by 0.3 per cent of GDP, rating agency ICRA said in a report.
The agency said that following the June 13 conflict escalation between Israel and Iran, crude prices rose sharply from $64–65 per barrel to $74–75 per barrel, raising concerns for crude- and gas-importing countries like India.
India sources 45–50 per cent of its crude oil and nearly 54 per cent of its liquefied natural gas (LNG) from West Asia via the Strait of Hormuz (SoH). ICRA said that geopolitical tensions in the region have increased the risk to global energy trade, with any disruption at SoH potentially impacting about 20 per cent of global oil and 25 per cent of global LNG supplies.
The agency has projected Brent crude oil prices to average $70–80 per barrel in FY26, with net oil imports expected at around $120 billion, compared with $123.4 billion in FY25. ICRA estimates the CAD to widen to $50–52 billion or 1.2–1.3 per cent of GDP in FY26, from 0.9 per cent in FY25.
Marketing margins of oil marketing companies (OMCs) for petrol and diesel are likely to moderate to Rs 6–8 per litre in FY26 due to higher crude prices. Under-recoveries on subsidised liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) may increase to Rs 160 billion.
While upstream companies may not see an immediate impact on their earnings at current crude prices, a prolonged surge could affect private investment and macroeconomic stability.
ICRA also noted that natural gas prices are likely to rise in the upcoming reset in July 2025. The agency expects the Administered Pricing Mechanism (APM) gas price to revert to USD 6.75 per mmBtu from USD 6.5 per mmBtu. New well gas (NWG) prices are also estimated to increase by 10 per cent.
India imports over 20 per cent of its global LNG from Qatar and UAE, with 85 per cent of their LNG exports passing through the SoH. Any extended disruption to shipping lanes could impact LNG supply and pricing in the domestic market.
Gas-based power plants, currently operating at plant load factors of less than 20 per cent, are unlikely to see major changes unless domestic gas availability improves. Fertiliser companies may witness higher input costs and elevated subsidy needs, particularly for urea and ammonia.
The report said that city gas distribution (CGD) companies and industrial consumers may also face higher spot LNG costs and shipping rates.
ICRA further estimates that a 10 per cent increase in crude oil prices could lead to an 80–100 basis points increase in wholesale price index (WPI) inflation and a 20–30 basis points increase in consumer price index (CPI) inflation, depending on how much of the increase is passed on to end-users.
India’s GDP growth forecast of 6.2 per cent for FY26 could also be revised downward if crude oil prices remain elevated. The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) April 2024 Monetary Policy Report estimated that a 10 per cent rise in crude oil prices over a baseline of USD 70 per barrel could reduce GDP growth by 15 basis points.
ICRA said any extended disruption or closure of the SoH could impact India’s LNG import availability and cost, increase domestic gas prices, and alter energy sector trade flows.
