As manufacturers bring more production back to the U.S., the reshoring trend is gaining momentum, but experts warn that the hardest work is still ahead. According to Andrei Quinn-Barabanov, Vice President and Senior Analyst at Moody’s, early efforts to restore domestic manufacturing are still in their infancy and come with major risks.
What’s Related
Andy Gray of Supply Chain 24/7 caught up with Quinn-Barbarov during the NextGen Supply Chain Conference in Nashville last month. “Anytime you see a significant shift, it’s a little surprising,” Quinn-Barbarov explained. “A key reason you’re doing the shift is to diminish your risks, improve quality, or decrease costs. But as you’re doing it, you also carry risks.”
Tariff uncertainty is driving decisions
Much of the reshoring push is tied to tariffs. Quinn-Barabanov called the current situation “tariff fog” because companies cannot predict what tariffs will look like in three months, leaving them unable to make confident sourcing decisions. Tariffs also raise transportation and supply chain costs, which puts pressure on budgets and planning. “It really makes kind of making your numbers essentially impossible,” he said.
A steep learning curve for manufacturers
Quinn-Barabanov says many companies underestimate how challenging it can be to restart production in industries where U.S. experience has faded. “When you’re reshoring production for an industry where we don’t really have anybody who has experience, you’re going to have likely some issues,” he explained. “You’re going to have some quality issues just because the people working at the plant are climbing a learning curve and the managers are climbing a learning curve on how to manage day-to-day production.”
Andrei Quinn-Barabanov
So far, much of the reshoring activity has centered on light assembly or small-scale operations, which can ramp up quickly. But true large-scale manufacturing takes years to build. “We haven’t seen that really being the reality yet,” he said. “Serious production takes longer time.”
Comparing today to the 1990s
Quinn-Barabanov compared the current moment to the wave of globalization in the 1990s. Back then, production shifted overseas at a rapid pace. Today, companies are trying to reverse that trend, but decades of offshoring have left deep gaps in workforce skills, supplier networks, and training programs. As he put it, companies are trying to rebuild something “that doesn’t have roots anymore in terms of people’s skills and training.”
What supply chain leaders should expect
For supply chain leaders, this timeline matters. Investments made today will only pay off if companies can sustain quality, manage costs, and retain a trained workforce. “It’s easy to make announcements about new facilities,” Quinn-Barabanov said. “What’s harder is getting consistent output and stable supply once those plants start running.”
He also warned that reshoring will only work if the broader ecosystem is rebuilt. Decades of offshoring left supplier networks thin for everything, from machine parts to skilled maintenance services. Without that foundation, reshored factories may still depend on imported inputs, which limits the benefit of bringing production home.
Still, companies appear committed. Geopolitical uncertainty, rising transportation costs, and tariff volatility have made global supply chains harder to manage. For many executives, moving closer to home no longer feels like a temporary shift. It feels like a strategy.
“It’s too early to declare reshoring a success or failure,” Quinn-Barabanov said. “We’re still in the very early stages of these efforts. The real test will come when those plants have to compete globally on cost and performance.”
