Nigeria is considering stripping its state oil company of its decisive role in managing existing oil contracts and transferring that authority to the upstream regulator, in what could be the most significant shake-up since the 2021 Petroleum Industry Act (PIA).
Under the proposal, contracts currently controlled by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) would move to the Nigeria Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC). Lawmakers say the shift is aimed at plugging “statutory leakages and opaque deductions” that have drained government coffers for decades.
It’s a bold step in a sector where mistrust runs deep. The PIA was supposed to settle the blurred lines between regulator and operator, but critics argue that NNPC’s hybrid role as both commercial player and contract gatekeeper left too much room for manipulation. By putting NUPRC in charge, Abuja hopes to clean up revenue flows and boost badly needed income for the cash-strapped state.
But the risks are obvious. If NUPRC takes on contract control while retaining its watchdog role, it could end up judge and jury over the very agreements it regulates—a conflict of interest that may spook investors. Legal fights over existing contracts are also a possibility, with international partners wary of changes to hard-won terms.
Nigeria’s oil sector can ill afford more uncertainty. Output has been hobbled by theft, pipeline sabotage, and underinvestment, leaving Africa’s top producer pumping well below its OPEC quota. Meanwhile, domestic refining is only just beginning to recover with the Warri restart and the Dangote refinery ramp-up, after years of costly fuel imports.
For now, the proposal signals Abuja’s desperation to squeeze more from oil, its chief revenue lifeline. Whether it delivers reform or simply shifts the opacity from one institution to another will depend on how much independence—and transparency—the government is willing to grant its regulator.
By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com
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