Brazil’s state-controlled oil producer Petrobras surpassed profit expectations after robust oil production and record exports helped cushion the impact of weaker crude prices. Shares rose.
The company accelerated output from its reserves in the pre-salt, a deep-water region that delivers roughly 80% of Brazil’s crude production. Average 2025 production of 2.4 million barrels a day beat Petrobras’s target and forth quarter exports surged 97% on year to a record.
Shares rose as much as 6% on the strong results and Brent prices that reached $90 for the first time in almost two years.
“Petrobras’ earnings look set to improve on higher oil prices and strong production,” Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Vladimir do Nascimento Pinto said in a report.
The result follows US supermajors Exxon Mobil Corp and Chevron Corp who also beat estimates on higher output in the fourth quarter.
The price spike resulting from the war in the Middle East is a double edged sword for Petrobras. Higher prices boost export revenue, but with Brazil in a presidential election year, the state-controlled company typically faces pressure to increase investment to support economic growth while helping contain fuel inflation. Petrobras generally avoids passing short-term price spikes on to consumers, according to Pinto.
The company has pledged to pump as much oil as possible to bolster profits, with some of its giant production vessels operating above nameplate capacity and new ones are coming online. Petrobras is targeting a 4.2% increase this year to 2.5 million barrels of oil a day.
Adjusted earnings before items, or Ebitda, came at 59.9 billion reais, Petrobras reported Thursday in a filing. That surpassed the 58.8 billion reais consensus of analysts tracked by Bloomberg, and was up 46% from the same quarter of 2024. The company posted net income of 15.6 billion reais, below expectations.
Petrobras has rewarded investors with rapid production growth and robust dividends and is currently Latin America’s largest company by market value.
Petroleo Brasileiro SA, as it is formally known, also announced 8.1 billion reais ($1.5 billion) in investor payouts, compared to the $2.3 billion announced for the previous quarter. Expectations were for a lower $1.2 billion payout, according to an average of five analysts estimates reviewed by Bloomberg.
The oil producer invested $20.3 billion last year, a 22% increase compared to 2024 and above its annual guidance. Total debt rose to $69.8 billion, approaching the company’s self-imposed ceiling of $75 billion, following lease agreements for new oil platforms.
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