The OPEC+8 group — comprising Saudi Arabia, Russia, the UAE, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Kazakhstan and Algeria — has agreed to increase production quotas by 137,000 barrels per day (bpd) for December, in line with expectations. The group also announced that it would pause output increases during the first quarter of 2026, marking the first such break since April 2025.
Rystad Energy’s Head of Geopolitical Analysis, Jorge León, said the group’s move reflects caution amid new uncertainties. “With today’s decision, OPEC+8 will have unwound 2.91 million bpd since the process started back in April. Like in the group’s recent meetings, this round also offered a surprise: That came from its decision to pause any production increases during the first quarter of 2026. This is the first time since April 2025 that the group will not raise output,” he said.
According to León, “Sanctions on Russian producers have injected a new layer of uncertainty into supply forecasts, and the group knows that overproducing now could backfire later. By pausing, OPEC+ is protecting prices, projecting unity, and buying time to see how sanctions play out on Russian barrels.”
Russia maintains composure amid US sanctions
Russia supported the latest OPEC+ decision despite new sanctions from the United States on its two largest oil firms. President Vladimir Putin acknowledged the sanctions as “serious” but said they were not strong enough to significantly impact the economy.
Given that any impact on Russian output will take time to materialize, Moscow is seen prioritizing stability. For the Kremlin, maintaining composure and signaling control remains central to its approach.
Focus shifts to 30 November OPEC+ Ministerial meet
The decision also sets the stage for the OPEC+ Ministerial meeting on 30 November, where members are expected to review and re-establish individual production quotas. Historically, such discussions have tested the cohesion of the group.
When OPEC last debated individual quotas in December 2023, Angola exited after disagreements over production capacity. Ecuador had earlier left in 2019 for similar reasons. The upcoming meeting is therefore being closely watched for signs of internal strain as countries push for higher allocations.
Balancing output and market stability
OPEC+ announced in December 2023 a plan to gradually unwind 2.2 million bpd of voluntary cuts by September 2026. However, the process was accelerated, with the entire amount unwound a year ahead of schedule due to resilient oil prices supported by Chinese stockpiling and geopolitical risk premiums.
The current production increase continues the group’s measured approach. If the pause in production hikes during Q1 2026 holds, Rystad Energy projects that the market surplus will remain around 3.5 million bpd. This surplus could put downward pressure on prices unless offset by stronger demand, stockpiling, or supply disruptions elsewhere.
A calculated slowdown
León noted that the latest OPEC+ decision underscores a pragmatic response to evolving market dynamics. By slowing the pace of unwinding, the group seeks to balance the risk of oversupply against maintaining price stability amid external pressures, including geopolitical developments and U.S. sanctions.
In summary, OPEC+8’s December output increase signals continued adherence to its gradual unwinding strategy, while the planned pause in early 2026 highlights the group’s cautious stance amid shifting global energy conditions.
