OPEC+ is expected to hold oil production flat in March and reiterate the first-quarter pause in supply hikes when the group meets on February 1 to discuss output levels, four delegates from the alliance told Bloomberg on Monday.
The group has not yet held discussions ahead of next Sunday’s online meeting, but it does not see any need of changing the policy despite the expected oversupply and the geopolitical developments that could influence supply from OPEC members Iran and Venezuela.
Early this month, the eight OPEC+ members that have been implementing cuts since 2023 – Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman – reaffirmed the decision to pause monthly increments during the first quarter of the year.
The decision was first taken in November 2025 and was confirmed at two consecutive meetings in December and January.
There is no indication that the February meeting would change that course, according to the OPEC+ delegates who spoke to Bloomberg.
The group will likely wait out the first quarter of the year, typically the weakest quarter for demand of any year, and see how supply could be affected – if at all – from the geopolitical flare-ups in recent weeks. These include, so far, the new oil order in Venezuela, the situation in Iran, and the pace of Russian supply amid the U.S. sanctions on top producers Rosneft and Lukoil and the EU ban on imports of oil products processed from Russian crude.
Last week, Amin Nasser, chief executive of Saudi oil giant Aramco, dismissed the glut narrative saying that forecasts of a massive oil glut are seriously exaggerated as demand keeps rising and global stocks are below the five-year average.
Global oil stocks are low, while the amassed barrels in floating storage on tankers are mostly sanctioned supplies, the CEO of the world’s biggest oil firm and top crude exporter said on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.
By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com
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