OPEC has slammed the brake on speculation, flatly rejecting media reports that the G8 is preparing to hike crude oil production by half a million barrels per day. In a statement from Vienna on Tuesday, the OPEC Secretariat called the claims “wholly inaccurate and misleading,” stressing that discussions among ministers for the upcoming meeting haven’t even begun yet.
The statement, which reads more like a hostile rebuke, targets earlier media reports that suggested that OPEC+ was weighing a much larger oil production increase for November–reports that have already sent oil prices lower.
Just hours before OPEC’s pushback, Reuters reported that OPEC+ was weighing a hefty November supply boost of as much as 500,000 bpd. This would be well above the 137,000 bpd production hike that is already scheduled for October. The idea, Reuters sources had suggested earlier, was that OPEC was going to attempt to claw back market share from fast-rising non-OPEC producers and reinforce the group’s relevance.
But OPEC+ has been missing its own targets for months. Despite announcing supply increases between April and August, the group only delivered about 75% of the promised volumes. Some members simply don’t have the spare capacity to ramp up, while others are still repaying previous overproduction through “compensation cuts.” In reality, only a handful of countries—mainly Saudi Arabia and the UAE—have meaningful flexibility.
OilPrice.com analysts have been pointing out that much of OPEC+’s recent posturing is more psychological than physical. Yes, the quotas are rising—but the actual barrels aren’t. That suggests that even a half-million-barrel “increase” may not fully materialize, especially if politically fragile producers like Nigeria, Angola, or Iraq struggle to keep up.
For now, the group’s message is unmistakable. OPEC wants the market to stop trading on rumors. Whether that signals a real internal rift or just a tactical effort to kill off speculation before it moves prices, OPEC is fighting to control the narrative as much as the market.
By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com
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