OPEC Reaffirms Decision to Pause Production Hikes

A statement posted on OPEC’s website on Sunday revealed that, in a meeting held that day, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman “reaffirmed their decision on November 2, 2025, to pause production increments in January, February, and March 2026 due to seasonality”. 

According to a table accompanying the statement, “required production” in January, February, and March next year is 10.103 million barrels per day for Saudi Arabia, 9.574 million barrels per day for Russia, 4.273 million barrels per day for Iraq, 3.411 million barrels per day for the UAE, 2.580 million barrels per day for Kuwait, 1.569 million barrels per day for Kazakhstan, 971,000 barrels per day for Algeria, and 811,000 barrels per day for Oman.

That statement highlighted that the eight OPEC+ countries met virtually on November 30 “to review global market conditions and outlook”. It said the eight participating countries “reiterated that the 1.65 million barrels per day may be returned in part or in full subject to evolving market conditions and in a gradual manner”.

“The countries will continue to closely monitor and assess market conditions, and in their continuous efforts to support market stability, they reaffirmed the importance of adopting a cautious approach and retaining full flexibility to continue pausing or reverse the additional voluntary production adjustments, including the previously implemented voluntary adjustments of the 2.2 million barrels per day announced in November 2023,” the statement noted.

“The eight countries reiterated their collective commitment to achieve full conformity with the Declaration of Cooperation, including the additional voluntary production adjustments that will be monitored by the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC),” it added.

“They also confirmed their intention to fully compensate for any overproduced volume since January 2024,” it continued.

The statement went on to note that the eight OPEC+ countries will hold monthly meetings “to review market conditions, conformity, and compensation”. The eight countries are next scheduled to meet on January 4, 2026, according to the statement.

A separate statement posted on OPEC’s website on Sunday highlighted that the 40th OPEC and non-OPEC ministerial meeting took place that day. That statement outlined that the participating countries decided to “reaffirm the Framework of the Declaration of Cooperation, signed on 10 December 2016 and further endorsed in subsequent meetings” and “reiterate the critical importance of adhering to full conformity and the compensation mechanism”. 

They also decided to “reaffirm the level of overall crude oil production for OPEC and non-OPEC Participating Countries in the DoC as agreed in the 38th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting until 31 December 2026” and “reaffirm the mandate of the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) to closely review global oil market conditions, oil production levels, and the level of conformity with the DoC, assisted by the OPEC Secretariat,” the statement outlined.

“In reference to the decision of the 39th ONOMM; mandating the OPEC Secretariat to develop a mechanism to assess participating countries’ maximum sustainable production capacity (MSC) to be used as reference for the 2027 production baselines for all DoC countries, the Participating Countries approved the mechanism developed by the Secretariat,” the statement went on to note.

This OPEC statement also revealed that the countries decided to “reaffirm the framework of the Charter of Cooperation (CoC), signed on 2 July 2019, and request the OPEC Secretariat to develop a plan and convert it into programs to achieve the full objectives of the CoC, as it was originally mandated, and present it to the 41st OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting”. 

The 41st OPEC and Non-OPEC ministerial meeting is scheduled to take place on June 7, 2026, according to the statement.

In a market update sent to Rigzone late Sunday by the Rystad Energy team, Rystad Energy Head of Political Analysis Jorge Leon said, “OPEC+ opted to hold fire at its meeting today and maintained its current strategy, formally confirming the pause on any production hikes for the first quarter of 2026”.

“The message from the group is clear: stability outweighs ambition at a time when the market outlook is deteriorating rapidly,” he added.

In that update, Leon warned that global balances are “shifting toward a significant oversupply next year”, highlighting that Rystad is estimating a surplus of 3.75 million barrels per day of liquids in 2026, which he dubbed as “one of the largest projected gluts in recent years”.

“Against this backdrop, any additional barrels from OPEC+ would risk deepening the price decline that is already visible across the forward curves,” Leon said in the update.

“For producers that are heavily reliant on oil revenues, holding back supply now is becoming less of an option and more of a necessity,” he added.

Rystad outlined in its update that the group’s latest production decision “is also heavily shaped by geopolitical factors – namely uncertainty involving key OPEC+ members”.

“These overlapping risks complicate any strategy that relies on predictable supply.

For OPEC+, the safest course was to step back, acknowledge the fog of geopolitical risk, and avoid moves that could unintentionally amplify volatility,” it added.

“OPEC+ signals that it does not want to rock the boat in an already unstable environment.

The group recognizes that market sentiment is fragile and that missteps, even symbolic ones, could trigger outsized price reactions,” it continued.

“Preserving optionality, rather than committing to a new production path, allows OPEC+ to react quickly if conditions worsen or if geopolitical events unexpectedly tighten supply,” it went on to state.

Rystad also highlighted in its update that OPEC+ “did not take a formal decision on new individual quotas and just agreed on a broad mechanism to assess capacities, suggesting that internal cohesion remains fragile and that the group is wary of reopening wounds at such a precarious moment”.

Rigzone has contacted OPEC for comment on Rystad Energy’s update. At the time of writing, OPEC has not responded to Rigzone.

To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com