OPEC kept its outlook for the oil market unchanged as the group and its allies continue to add barrels to the global market.
Global oil demand will grow by 1.3 million barrels a day this year and by 1.4 million in 2026, the same as previously forecast, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said in its monthly market report on Monday.
OPEC+ — representing the group and its allies — is adding barrels to a global market that’s expected to be in surplus next year. The group increased output by 630,000 barrels a day in September, according to the report, citing information from secondary sources.
Brent oil futures have slumped 18% in the past year, with a big part of the drop coming since April, when the OPEC+ hikes were first announced, to the surprise of traders.
The projected demand for OPEC+ crude was also unchanged from last month’s report, at 42.5 million barrels a day this year. Next year, demand for the group’s crude is expected to rise to 43.1 million barrels a day.
This month, the OPEC+ alliance agreed to revive just 137,000 barrels a day of halted supply, a slower pace than earlier this year.
Other key figures from the monthly report:
September output average about 43.05 million barrels a day.
Oil demand in the OECD is expected to rise by around 130,000 barrels a day, with OECD Americas leading the increase.
Non-OECD demand is expected to grow by around 1.2 million barrels a day.
Transport fuels are expected to be the key growth source for oil demand this year, with jet fuel/kerosene adding 380,000 barrels a day of demand and diesel 300,000 barrels a day.
Non-OPEC production is expected to grow by about 800,000 barrels a day this year, and 600,000 next year, also unchanged from last month’s assessment.
Brazil, Canada, the US and Argentina are set to be the main contributors to higher output.
OPEC+ output of natural gas liquids and non-conventional liquids is predicted to expand by 100,000 year-on-year to an average of 8.6 million barrels a day this year, and by a similar margin in 2026 to reach 8.8m million barrels day.
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