OPEC In Process of Retaking Market Share

OPEC+ is in the process of retaking market share, Ole R. Hvalbye, Commodities Analyst at Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (SEB), and Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief Commodities Analyst at SEB, said in an oil report sent to Rigzone by the SEB team on Tuesday. 

“Oil prices are likely to fall for a fourth straight year as OPEC+ unwinds cuts and retakes market share,” the analysts said in the report.

“We expect Brent crude to average $55 per barrel in Q4/25 before OPEC+ steps in to stabilize the market into 2026,” they added.

“Surplus, stock building, oil prices are under pressure with OPEC+ calling the shots as to how rough it wants to play it,” they went on to state.

The SEB analysts noted in the report that OPEC+ is in a process of unwinding voluntary cuts by a sub-group of the members and taking back market share but added that the process looks set to be different from 2014-16, “as the group doesn’t look likely to blindly lift production to take back market share”.

“The group has stated very explicitly that it can just as well cut production as increase it ahead,” Hvalbye and Schieldrop pointed out in the report.

“While the oil price is unlikely to drop as violently and lasting as in 2014-16, it will likely fall further before the group steps in with fresh cuts to stabilize the price,” they warned.

“We expect Brent to fall to $55 per barrel in Q4/25 before the group steps in with fresh cuts at the end of the year,” they continued.

In a market comment sent to Rigzone on Friday, Van Ha Trinh, Financial Markets Strategist at Exness, said, “the increase in OPEC output during September has reinforced concerns about oversupply”.

“While a potential pause in production hikes after that could provide some short-term relief, traders are likely to remain cautious until there is clearer guidance from the next OPEC meeting,” Trinh added.

“The market’s direction could depend on whether the group signals restraint in the coming months or prioritizes market share, as either direction could set the tone for Q4 pricing,” Trinh went on to state.

In a market analysis sent to Rigzone on Thursday, Konstantinos Chrysikos, Head of Customer Relationship Management at Kudotrade, said “OPEC+ output continues to rise, with further increases expected in September” and highlighted that “traders could monitor OPEC’s next meeting for an update on the organization’s production targets and their impact on supply”.

“A pause could provide the market with some support,” Chrysikos noted in the analysis.

Rigzone has contacted OPEC for comment on the statements by Hvalbye and Schieldrop, Trinh, and Chrysikos. At the time of writing, OPEC has not responded to Rigzone.

In an oil report sent to Rigzone by the SEB team last week, Schieldrop said there is an increasing risk that OPEC+ will unwind the last 1.65 million barrels per day of cuts when they meet on September 7.

In the report, Schieldrop outlined that the oil market “shows pockets of strength blinking here and there” and warned that “this clearly increases the chance that OPEC+ decides to unwind the remaining 1.65 million barrels per day of voluntary cuts when they meet on 7 September to discuss production in October”. Schieldrop added in the report, however, that the group may split the unwind over two or three months.

“After that the group can start again with a clean slate and discuss OPEC+ wide cuts rather than voluntary cuts by a sub-group,” Shieldrop said in the report.

“That paves the way for OPEC+ wide cuts into Q1-26 where a large surplus is projected unless the group kicks in with cuts,” he added.

Rigzone previously contacted OPEC for comment on Schieldrop’s statements. OPEC did not respond to this Rigzone request for comment.

A statement posted on OPEC’s website on August 3 announced that Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman “will implement a production adjustment of 547,000 barrels per day in September”.

“The eight OPEC+ countries, which previously announced additional voluntary adjustments in April and November 2023 … met virtually on 3 August 2025, to review global market conditions and outlook,” the statement noted.

“In view of a steady global economic outlook and current healthy market fundamentals, as reflected in the low oil inventories, and in accordance with the decision agreed upon on 5 December 2024 to start a gradual and flexible return of the 2.2 million barrels per day voluntary adjustments starting from 1 April 2025, the eight participating countries will implement a production adjustment of 547,000 barrels per day in September 2025 from August 2025 required production level,” the statement added.

“This is equivalent to four monthly increments … The phase-out of the additional voluntary production adjustments may be paused or reversed subject to evolving market conditions. This flexibility will allow the group to continue to support oil market stability,” it continued.

The eight countries are next scheduled to meet on September 7, the statement revealed.

According to a table accompanying that statement, September “required production” is 9.978 million barrels per day for Saudi Arabia, 9.449 million barrels per day for Russia, 4.220 million barrels per day for Iraq, 3.375 million barrels per day for the United Arab Emirates, 2.548 million barrels per day for Kuwait, 1.550 million barrels per day for Kazakhstan, 959,000 barrels per day for Algeria, and 801,000 barrels per day for Oman.

To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com