OPEC and its allies agreed on Sunday to keep oil output levels unchanged through the end of 2026, reaffirming their production control framework amid mounting concerns over a looming supply glut and weakening prices. The decision came at the 40th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting, where members endorsed a new mechanism to assess national production capacities that will set the stage for fresh quotas in 2027.
The group — which collectively pumps about half the world’s oil — said it would reaffirm the Declaration of Cooperation signed in 2016, maintaining overall production limits agreed at the 38th ministerial meeting. The statement emphasized “the critical importance of full conformity” and adherence to compensation mechanisms among members.
OPEC+ ministers also empowered the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) to meet every two months and hold emergency sessions if market conditions warrant. The committee will closely monitor supply, demand, and compliance, with support from the OPEC Secretariat.
The bloc also approved a new system to measure maximum sustainable production capacity (MSC) — a key technical benchmark that will inform baseline levels for output allocations beginning in 2027. The mechanism aims to resolve long-standing tensions between members such as the UAE, which has expanded capacity and wants higher quotas, and others like Nigeria and Angola, whose output has declined.
While the group reaffirmed its commitment to stability, oil prices remain under pressure. Brent crude closed Friday near $63 per barrel, down about 15% since January, as traders brace for oversupply in 2026. The International Energy Agency projects a potential surplus exceeding 4 million barrels per day next year despite higher demand estimates, while JP Morgan sees a “persistent glut” that could drive prices even lower.
The group will reconvene for its 41st ministerial meeting on June 7, 2026, with the Secretariat tasked to develop new cooperation programs under the 2019 Charter of Cooperation.
By Tom Kool for Oilprice.com
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