OPEC will bring in an independent consultant to evaluate the production capacity of its member states, Kuwait’s Oil Minister Saad Al Barrak said Wednesday, in what marks a rare external audit of the group’s internal metrics as quota negotiations intensify ahead of 2026.
Speaking to reporters in Kuwait City, Al Barrak said the consultant would provide a “technical, neutral assessment” of each producer’s sustainable output, a process designed to ensure future production baselines reflect real capacity rather than self-reported claims. The minister did not identify which firm would be chosen, but confirmed that discussions are already under way within OPEC’s secretariat.
The initiative, first outlined in a May OPEC+ communiqué, follows months of pressure from producers such as the United Arab Emirates and Iraq, which have invested heavily in field expansions and want higher quotas. Others, most notably Angola before its exit, have struggled to meet existing targets. Analysts say a credible third-party assessment could ease long-running disputes over capacity estimates that have undermined OPEC+ cohesion and market confidence.
According to Reuters, the study will measure “maximum sustainable production” for each member, factoring in upstream investment levels, reservoir integrity, and spare capacity buffers. A final report is expected before OPEC+ finalizes new quotas for 2027.
Kuwait, whose own capacity recently reached about 3.2 million barrels per day, supports what Al Barrak described as “transparent calibration” among members to balance credibility and stability, Asharq Al Awsat reported, adding that the consultancy will likely begin work before the next ministerial meeting in Vienna.
The move comes amid broader OPEC warnings that underinvestment threatens future supply security. OPEC Secretary-General Haitham Al Ghais said earlier Wednesday that sustained capital flows into upstream oil and gas are “essential to avoid volatility,” echoing repeated calls for $12 trillion in cumulative investment through 2045.
By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com
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