OPEC+ nations gathering this weekend are once again grappling with the thorny question of how much oil they’re physically able to pump.
In May, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies launched a new assessment of members’ “maximum sustainable capacity” to help set production quotas in 2027. With output levels for the months ahead already set, delegates say this longer-term review will likely be one area of focus at Sunday’s meeting.
The process looks increasingly necessary, as the struggle by some OPEC+ members to increase supplies as much as agreed this year indicates they may be nearing output limits. Clarifying their full capacity would help align quotas more closely with reality — and make any future cutbacks more credible.
OPEC’s readiness to make new curbs could be tested in 2026 amid signs of a swelling global oil surplus and downward pressure on crude prices, which have slumped to near $60 a barrel in London. In a report on Monday, JPMorgan Chase & Co. indicated that the alliance may need to slash output next year to avert a plunge into the $40s.
But the capacity assessment also poses an area of friction for the organization, as some countries push for a higher estimate of their abilities and others refuse to admit they can’t produce as much as claimed. In 2023, discord over the process led to the exit of long-term OPEC member Angola.
While group leader Saudi Arabia is capable of boosting output significantly, the outlook for other nations is less clear-cut. The United Arab Emirates and Iraq have been eager to expand capacity, but some members like Russia are challenged by international sanctions.
The review will be conducted with the assistance of several energy consulting firms, which in the past have included Wood Mackenzie and IHS, which is now a unit of S&P Global. Some groundwork was laid at a technical meeting in September.
One delegate said it remains unclear what OPEC+ will discuss during its set of online meetings on Sunday, beyond reviewing oil market conditions. The gatherings will also give key members the chance to review their production policy for early 2026, although some delegates said they don’t expect any changes.
Eight of the group’s members decided this month to pause further production increases during the first quarter — after ramping up supplies with surprising speed earlier this year — amid signs that a long-awaited glut is finally arriving.
RBC Capital Markets LLC believes they’re unlikely to adjust policy until there’s more visibility on geopolitical risks to the group’s oil supplies: US sanctions on Russia and increasing belligerence toward Venezuela.
“We continue to contend that OPEC will stick with a watch-and-wait approach until there is more clarity,” said Helima Croft, RBC’s head of commodity markets strategy.
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