In this week’s newsletter, we will take a quick look at some of the critical figures and data in the energy markets this week.
We will then look at some of the key market movers early this week before providing you with the latest analysis of the top news events taking place in the global energy complex over the past few days. We hope you enjoy.
Traders Go Full Bull as Brent Defies Oversupply Worries
– Defying expectations for a year of enormous oversupply, oil prices have had their strongest start to a year since 2022, with ICE Brent futures now 18% up since the beginning of the year.
– Volatility has been shooting through the roof as the markets anticipate US military strikes on Iran, with Brent monthly call option volumes hitting an all-time high of 5.8 million contracts last month.
– Concurrently to the geopolitical risk premium rising, backwardation in oil futures is steepening, too, with the December 2026 contract currently trading $4 per barrel below April.
– The net positioning of hedge funds in ICE Brent futures has been fervently bullish in recent weeks, with CFTC reporting a net length of 263,186 contracts in the week ending February 17, more than doubling since early January 2026.
Market Movers
– Italy’s oil major ENI (BIT:ENI) is considering revamping its oil trading business, having stopped altogether in 2019, claiming other majors such as Shell or TotalEnergies are making billions from it, eyeing a potential partnership with Mercuria.
– London-based energy major Shell (LON:SHEL) is expected to advance its Dragon gas field offshore Venezuela after receiving approval from the US Department of the Treasury’s OFAC, aiming for first gas by Q4 2027.
– The BP-ENI joint venture operating in offshore Angola, Azule Energy, has started production at its Ndungu field in Block 15/06, feeding its output into the Agogo hub and eyeing 60,000 b/d of production at its peak.
– Abu Dhabi-based sovereign fund Mubadala Energy acquired a 15% participating interest in the Chevron-operated (NYSE:CVX) Nargis offshore concession in Egypt, farming into ENI’s erstwhile 45% stake.
Tuesday, February 24, 2026
US-Iran nuclear talks in Geneva or embassy evacuations aside, the oil markets are still on the edge as yet another week has passed without anything substantial happening between the Trump administration and Iran. ICE Brent continues to hover around $72 per barrel, brushing aside macroeconomic concerns following Trump’s threats of raising temporary import tariffs from 10% to 15%.
Goldman Sachs Embraces Its Internal Bull. US investment bank Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) has lifted its 2026 price forecast for Brent and WTI by $8 per barrel to $64 and $60 per barrel, respectively, even though it assumes no Iran supply disruptions and OPEC+ restarting its crude production hikes.
VLCC Freight Balloons Out of Control. Freight cost for very large crude tankers sailing from the Middle East to China has tripled since the beginning of this year, with daily charter rates for VLCC freight now assessed at $170,000 per day, the highest since the contango frenzy of April 2020.
Chevron Nears in on Giant Iraqi Field. US oil major Chevron (NYSE:CVX) has signed a preliminary agreement with Iraq’s state-run Basra Oil (BOC) to explore potential involvement in the 480,000 b/d West Qurna-2 oil field, taking over from Russia’s major Lukoil that was forced out by sanctions.
Saudi Arabia Starts Marketing New Grade. Saudi national oil company Saudi Aramco (TADAWUL:2222) has sold several cargoes of its ultra-light oil grade from its $100 billion Jafurah project to Indian and Korean refiners, pricing it $2-3 per barrel above benchmark Dubai quotes.
Trump Slackens Coal Mercury Emissions. The Trump administration stated that it would roll back the Biden-era 2024 Mercury and Air Toxics Standard, loosening regulations on mercury emissions and hazardous toxins from coal-fueled power plants, citing the need to alleviate rising power costs.
US Revives 65-Year-Old Cuba Claim. The US Supreme Court will decide this week whether to allow oil major ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) to claim more than $1 billion in compensation from Cuban state-owned entities for the seizure of its energy assets by the Fidel Castro government in 1960.
Nigeria’s Next Big Oil IPO is Coming Up. The 650,000 b/d Dangote refinery in Lekki, owned by Africa’s richest man Aliko Dangote, is preparing for an IPO with regional media suggesting the initial offering would happen within the next five months, marking one of the largest listings in Nigeria.
There Shall Be No More Friendship. Ukraine’s army has struck a crude oil pumping station in Russia’s Tatarstan region, part of the Druzhba (‘Friendship’) pipeline system that has been offline for a month as both Slovakia and Hungary accuse Kyiv of deliberately withholding oil deliveries
Kazakh Litigation Drama Opens New Chapter. Global oil majors operating Kazakhstan’s second-largest Kashagan field have filed for international arbitration after the Kazakh government slapped a more than $5 billion for breaching sulphur-stockpiling regulations and lost revenue.
Copper Rebounds on China’s Return to Office. The benchmark three-month LME copper futures rose to $13,100 per metric tonne, the highest in two weeks, after trading activity in the metal picked up on the return of Chinese buyers to the market, with the Lunar New Year holidays largely over.
Brazil, the New Rare Earth Partner of Most. The governments of Brazil and India signed a framework agreement on the joint development of critical minerals and subsequent processing, as most consumers seek to reduce their reliance on China amidst Beijing’s export quota system.
Venezuela Seeks to Maximize Oil Cargoes. Trading houses Vitol and Trafigura have started chartering their own VLCCs for the delivery of Venezuelan cargoes to India, the first such ships to be fixed since Caracas and Washington agreed to a $2 billion supply deal in January 2026.
Kuwait Advances on Its Pipeline Divestment. Kuwait’s national oil firm KPC is in talks with a group of investment funds comprising BlackRock, Brookfield Asset Management, EIG and buyout group KKR to sell a $7 billion stake in its crude oil pipeline system, potentially reaching a deal by end-month.
By Tom Kool for Oilprice.com
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