Oil slumped in muted post-Christmas trading as investors assessed a fresh development in long-stalled Ukraine peace talks which could lead to a deal that allows more Russian oil into global markets grappling with oversupply.
West Texas Intermediate edged down 2.8% on Friday to settle near $57 a barrel, the biggest drop since mid-November, while Brent ended below $61. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said he expects to meet with US President Donald Trump in Florida on Sunday about ending Russia’s war, adding that his country’s framework deal with the US was “almost ready” and signing it will depend on the upcoming meeting.
“He doesn’t have anything until I approve it,” Trump said, referring to Zelenskiy. “So we’ll see what he’s got.” In November, Trump said on social media he wouldn’t meet with the leaders of the two countries until a deal was at least in its final stages.
However, the latest comments from Moscow raised doubts about how close a final agreement really is. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov described Kyiv’s latest plans as “radically different” from the key points Moscow has discussed with the US, according to a report in Russian media.
The Ukraine development erased earlier gains on a partial US blockade of crude shipments from Venezuela and a military strike by Washington against a militant group in Nigeria. Volumes are also trending lower following Christmas, with many traders away, leading to exaggerated price swings.
The White House has ordered commanders to concentrate for the next two months on quarantining Venezuelan oil, according to a person familiar with the matter. The person, who requested anonymity, said US forces were focused almost exclusively on the blockade, rather than military options.
Meanwhile, Trump said that the US launched a “powerful and deadly strike” against Islamic State targets in northwest Nigeria, with US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth threatening more to come. The country, an OPEC member, produced about 1.5 million barrels a day in November, according to data from the group.
Even as geopolitical risks lend a floor to prices, WTI crude remains on track for the biggest annual decline since 2020 with a roughly 21% slide. The drop has been driven by expectations for a surplus, with virtually all of the world’s major crude traders foreseeing a global glut next year after producers in and outside OPEC+ increased supplies.
“Oil prices have been receiving support from strong US macro data and geopolitical instability over the past week,” said Kirill Bakhtin, senior oil and gas analyst at Moscow-based BCS Financial Group. “As no new US stats are scheduled in the coming days, we expect a slight decline in prices going forward unless politics continues to weigh in.”
Commodities including crude also had support from a weakening US currency, a shift that makes raw materials cheaper for most buyers. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index has shed nearly 0.8% this week.
Oil Prices
WTI for February settled at $56.74 a barrel in New York, 2.8% lower from the close on Wednesday.
The markets were closed on Thursday for the Christmas holiday.
Brent for February settlement fell 2.6% to settle at $60.64 a barrel.
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