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Home » Oil Settles Higher on Black Sea Supply Risks
Middle East

Oil Settles Higher on Black Sea Supply Risks

omc_adminBy omc_adminJanuary 20, 2026No Comments4 Mins Read
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Oil rose as traders weighed the supply impact from disruptions in the Black Sea region along with broader market gyrations in the wake of President Donald Trump’s ambitions to take over Greenland.

West Texas Intermediate’s February contract, which settled Tuesday, rose 1.5% to settle above $60. The more active March contract rose by a similar amount. Supply disruptions have helped support prices, with Kazakhstan’s largest oil producer recently halting production at the Tengiz and Korolev fields after two fires at power generators. The Tengiz field will be shut for another seven to 10 days, Reuters reported.

Kazakhstan had already reduced oil production after drone strikes affecting the Caspian Pipeline Consortium’s shipping terminal in Russia, which is the outlet for about 80% of Kazakh exports.

“Crude is trading higher this morning on ongoing concerns around CPC loadings, which have remained constrained following recent Ukrainian attacks,” said Rebecca Babin, a senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth Group. “At the same time, broader geopolitical risks remain elevated, keeping traders focused closely on headlines.”

Meanwhile, Trump unleashed fresh social media attacks against allies, with European leaders signaling a strong response to potential US tariffs over the semi-autonomous territory of Denmark.

The escalation of tensions has pressured stock markets, helped send gold and silver to record highs and raised the specter of a US-EU trade war that could dent global growth and drag down oil prices with it. But so far, the direct impact on crude prices has been more muted.

“Growth concerns as a result of tariff threats weigh on risk sentiment,” said Giovanni Staunovo, a commodity analyst at UBS Group AG. “Oil is, like equity markets, not immune to it.”

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Any new downward pressure on prices would add to broader concerns about crude supply outpacing demand, with the International Energy Agency forecasting a major overhang of more than 3.8 million barrels a day this year. Further supply could emerge from Venezuela, where the US is scaling up its involvement in the South American nation’s oil industry after its capture of President Nicolas Maduro.

“The outlook for a large surplus suggests prices should trend lower, while the potential for a further escalation in US-EU tensions poses further downside risk,” said Warren Patterson, head of commodities strategy at ING Groep NV.

Elsewhere, Middle Eastern crude prices are diverging, with heavier grades growing cheaper relative to lighter barrels, a shift that is encouraging Asian refiners to favor medium and sour crudes to boost margins. Cold weather in the US is also helping push diesel prices higher, with futures settling 4.5% higher on Tuesday.

Oil Prices


WTI for February delivery, which expired Tuesday, rose 1.5% to settle at $60.34 a barrel in New York


The more active March contract gained 1.7% to $60.36 a barrel.


Brent for March settlement added 1.5% to settle at $64.92 a barrel.

 


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