Oil market sentiment is decidedly bearish at the moment, but Trump’s threats around Venezuela mean there is plenty of potential for volatility in the near future.
Friday, October 24, 2025
Tacitly anticipating Trump’s next moves on Venezuela, the oil markets have been trending sideways as ICE Brent continues to hover around $64 per barrel. Barring any upcoming moves in the Caribbean, the sentiment is tilting towards the bearish side. Now that the US government shutdown is actively impacting jet fuel consumption across the country, geopolitical risk premia have given way to ‘Trump discounts’ when policy standoffs start to impact nationwide consumption.
European Diesel Soars Even Higher. European ICE gasoil cracks soared to 21-month highs as the premium of the middle distillate in NW Europe rose to $34 per barrel compared to Dated Brent, buoyed by this week’s drone strikes on Russian refineries and upcoming EU sanctions on buyers of Russian oil.
Saudi Aramco Slashes Asian Prices. Saudi Arabia’s national oil company Saudi Aramco (TADAWUL:2222) has sharply cut its formula prices to Asia, dropping the December price of its flagship Arab Light grade by $1.20 per barrel from November, to ‘just’ a $1.00 per barrel premium over the Oman/Dubai average.
Trump Expands List of Critical Minerals. US President Donald Trump has added new elements to the US list of critical minerals, adding copper and metallurgical coal, allowing for an expedited development of new mining projects and determining specific requirements for them to qualify for federal incentives.
ADNOC Awards $14.7 Billion in Local Contracts. Abu Dhabi National Oil Company has awarded AED54 billion ($14.7 billion) in contracts to UAE suppliers in H2 2025, reinforcing its role in boosting local industry and supply chain resilience. Announced at ADIPEC’s Business Partnership Forum, the awards include AED2.6 billion in framework deals with Emerson, Yokogawa, ABB, Schneider Electric, and Honeywell to localize automation technologies. ADNOC’s In-Country Value program has injected AED242 billion ($65.9 billion) into the UAE economy since 2018 and aims to add AED200 billion more over the next five years.
Russian Diesel Exports Keep on Falling. Russia’s seaborne diesel exports fell another 4% in October, to about 2.4 million tonnes, as Ukraine’s drone strikes curb domestic downstream output, with the largest declines seen in supplies to Brazil that dropped a hefty 73% month-over-month, to just 74,000 tonnes.
Chinese Crude Imports Surge Ahead of Year End. China’s crude oil imports rose a whopping 8.2% year-over-year to 11.4 million b/d, according to the country’s General Administration of Customs, driven by state oil companies maximizing refinery runs amidst the best margins of 2025 to date.
Lukoil’s Asset Transfer Gets Muddled by Trump. Global trading major Gunvor has withdrawn its proposal to buy the $20 billion worth of foreign assets of Russia’s No.2 oil producer Lukoil after US President Trump blocked the deal, calling Geneva-based Gunvor the Kremlin’s ‘puppet’.
Japan to Build Up LNG Emergency Reserve. Japan, the second largest buyer of LNG globally, has vowed to start buying more liquefied natural gas for emergency reserves, purchasing at least one cargo monthly from January 2025 onwards, instead of only buying in peak demand periods.
Damaged Port Halts Tuapse Refinery. According to media reports, Rosneft’s 240,000 b/d Tuapse refinery was forced to halt crude processing after a Ukrainian drone strike damaged the adjacent refined product export terminal earlier this week, sparking a fire at Russia’s second-largest Black Sea port.
Malaysia Sees Waves of Aluminium Flooding In. Global commodity trader Trafigura has reportedly delivered almost 100,000 metric tonnes of aluminium to LME-registered warehouses in Port Klang, Malaysia, in what seems to be one of the largest rent deals of 2025, taking total stocks to 367,000 t.
LNG Canada Goes Full Steam. Canada’s first-ever LNG facility, the Shell-operated (LON:SHEL) LNG Canada project, announced that it had started production of liquefied natural gas at its second liquefaction train, boosting nameplate capacity to 13 mtpa after months-long issues at its first train.
Beijing Suspends Rare Earth Export Controls. Coming on the back of the Trump-Xi summit in South Korea last week, China’s Commerce Ministry suspended export control measures for dual-use rare earth materials as well as lithium battery materials and super-hard materials through November 2026.
Ukraine to Buy US LNG. Ukraine’s state oil and gas firm Naftogaz announced it would increase imports of US liquefied natural gas through Poland, with volumes expected to be around 1 bcm per year as more than 50% of the country’s domestic gas production capacity is now offline due to Russian strikes.
US Flight Curbs to Hit Jet Fuel Demand. The US Federal Aviation Administration started to cancel flights across 40 high-traffic airports in the US, initially cutting activity by 4% on November 7 and gradually ramping up cancellations to 10% by November 14, impacting some 160,000 b/d of domestic jet demand.
By Michael Kern for Oilprice.com
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