Oil prices fell by more than 1% early on Friday as the market awaits the outcome of the summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin, who will discuss a potential ceasefire in Ukraine.
As of 9:37 a.m. EST on Friday, the U.S. benchmark oil price, WTI Crude, was down by 1.38% at $63.10, as President Trump departed for Anchorage, Alaska, to meet with Putin.
The international benchmark, Brent Crude, traded 1.18% lower at $66.07 per barrel.
The face-to-face meeting between President Trump and Putin is expected to begin around 3 p.m. EST and it’s unclear how long it would take.
President Trump on Thursday threatened “very severe consequences” for Russia if Putin does not agree to a ceasefire agreement.
The market struggles to anticipate what the outcome of the Trump-Putin meeting will be. Some analysts are concerned that President Trump could agree to Russian terms that could include territorial concession by Ukraine.
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said that decisions about Ukraine taken in his absence would be meaningless.
Trump has signaled he would at a later stage work for a meeting that would include Zelenskyy.
According to A/S Global Risk Management’s chief analyst Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, the Friday meeting “is unlikely to deliver significant results.”
“If a follow-up meeting is agreed, Trump may seek to place responsibility on Putin and Zelenskiy,” Rasmussen told Bloomberg.
“In the near term, new US sanctions are unlikely; a relaxation cannot be ruled out unless the meeting collapses,” the analyst added.
A relaxation of the U.S. sanctions against Russia could increase concerns about oversupply on the market later this year and early 2026.
“The geopolitical risk premium tied to the Trump–Putin meeting in Alaska is now a secondary driver, and unless talks break down sharply, the macro drag from the demand outlook may keep a lid on rallies, with Brent potentially struggling above USD 70 per barrel,” Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, said in a Friday note.
By Michael Kern for Oilprice.com
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