On a relatively quiet trading day for oil markets, as the U.S. celebrates Independence Day, oil prices have been dragged lower on expectations of further output hikes from OPEC+.
Friday, July 4th, 2025
Trading activity was thin towards the end of this week as the United States celebrates Independence Day – with a record-breaking 72 million people traveling – but both ICE Brent and WTI edged slightly lower on expectations of OPEC+ hiking production targets again in August. Whilst OPEC+’s Saturday meeting seems to be a rather predictable affair, next week’s big price moves will be dictated by the July 9 tariff deadline as Asian countries try their luck with last-minute negotiations with President Trump.
OPEC+ Moves Its July Meeting a Day Ahead. Sticking to its policy of trying to surprise market watchers, the group of eight OPEC+ producers unwinding production cuts decided to move their meeting initially planned for July 6 to Saturday, in anticipation of yet another 411,000 b/d monthly output hike.
Trading Giant Tries Its Luck with Last-Minute Bid. A consortium led by privately-held trading giant Vitol submitted an eleventh-hour bid for Venezuela-owned US refiner Citgo Petroleum, offering more than 10 billion for Citgo’s 807,000 b/d capacity for three refineries, the highest known offer in the ongoing auction.
India Wants to Expand Strategic Reserves. The government of India has started feasibility studies on the construction of three new strategic petroleum storage sites, more than doubling the current 40-million-barrel SPR stock, placing a special emphasis on salt caverns in the northern state of Rajasthan.
Exxon Returns Unused Guyana Acreage to State. US oil major ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) has returned 2,534 km2 (equivalent to 978 sq miles) of the Stabroek block offshore Guyana to the South American country’s government, relinquishing it after it didn’t manage to explore or develop those territories.
BlackRock Comes to the Rescue. With Saudi Arabia expected to take on more debt this year after a $15.6 billion deficit in Q1, US investment firm BlackRock (NYSE:BLK) has reportedly expressed interest in selling its stake in Saudi Aramco’s (TADAWUL:2222) natural gas pipeline network back to the NOC.
China Eases Taxation on Embattled Teapots. The regional government of Shandong hiked fuel oil import tax rebates for independent refiners in the region, returning between 75% and 95% of payable consumption tax for gasoline and diesel as most ‘teapots’ barely survive at 50-55% utilization rates.
Brazil Eyes More Exploration Money. Following a bumper revenue stream of 180 million from Brazil’s 5th Concession Offer bidding last month, the Latin American country now wants to hold an additional E&P auction to be organized in 2025 still for uncontracted pre-salt areas, eyeing higher budget revenue.
Glencore Mulls Its Options with UK Refinery. Swiss-based global trading house Glencore (LON:GLEN) has been in talks with the UK government over the fate of the 113,000 b/d Lindsey refinery, caught in great turmoil after the insolvency of its operator Prax, as Glencore has been its exclusive crude supplier.
Sanctions-Hit Venezuela Revisits China Dependence. Despite the Trump administration’s sanctions snapback on Venezuela, PDVSA’s exports of oil and refined products edged slightly higher in June to 844,000 b/d, however almost 90% of all flows are now moving towards China, a longtime ally.
US Oil Drilling Wanes on Uncertain Outlook. According to the latest survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, oil and gas business activity in the US turned negative in Q2 2025 as the uncertainty index soared to 47.1, with almost half of companies expecting to drill fewer wells this year than initially expected.
Japan Wants Fully-Fledged Carbon Trading by 2027. Japan launched discussions with domestic industry participants to kick-start its full-scale emissions trading system by 2027, mandating that all companies emitting more than 100,000 metric tonnes of CO2 participate in ETS trading, a step up from the current voluntary market.
Ecuador Declares Force Majeure on Oil Production. Ecuador’s state oil company Petroecuador declared force majeure on all its operations after the 360,000 b/d SOTE and 450,000 b/d OCP pipelines carrying crude from the country’s inner regions to the coast were damaged by landslides and erosion.
Trump Admin Lifts Restrictions on China-Bound Ethane. The US Commerce Department rescinded its mandate for US ethane exporters to seek export licenses for deliveries to China, with both Enterprise and Energy Transfer confirming flows from the Morgan’s Point and Nederland terminals have fully resumed.
By Michael Kern for Oilprice.com
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