Oil prices rallied aggressively on Tuesday morning, recovering from the OPEC+-induced drop that was sparked by the cartel’s decision to unwind production cuts at a faster rate than previously planned. Despite the recovery, uncertainty remains in markets and more volatility is likely.
– Oil majors have been surprisingly inert in reacting to oil prices declining by more than $10 per barrel since early April, preferring to wait out the resolution of the U.S.-China trade war before cutting expenditures.
– Posting a net profit of $7.7 billion, down 7% from a year ago, oil major ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) maintained its capital expenditure guidance at $27-29 billion, with peers Chevron, Shell and TotalEnergies keeping their targets as well.
– Embattled oil firm BP (NYSE:BP) was the only major to cut its capex guidance by $0.5 billion to $14.5 billion, with CEO Murray Auchincloss flagging further downgrades down the line if prices don’t recover.
– BP will be unable to maintain its current dividend strategy if oil prices remain below $71 per barrel, whilst Shell leads the pack of oil majors with a dividend breakeven of $48 per barrel, easily accommodating a couple more months of expedited OPEC+ unwinding.
Market Movers
– French oil major TotalEnergies (NYSE:TTE) has applied for an environmental permit in Chile to launch a 16 billion green hydrogen and ammonia project, with construction expected to begin in 2026.
– Argentina’s Energy Ministry confirmed its plans to privatize national gas company Enarsa, a company founded in 2003 to import Bolivian gas that since transformed into the country’s leading gas and power trader.
– Norway’s state oil firm Equinor (NYSE:EQNR) sold its remaining 60% operated interest in Brazil’s offshore Peregrino field to regional producer PRIO for a consideration of 3.35 billion.
Tuesday, May 06, 2025
Oil prices have largely shrugged off the bombshell that OPEC+ dropped on markets when it announced plans to speed up the unwinding of its production cuts. Early on Tuesday, both WTI and Brent were up by around 4%. That said, the current ICE Brent price of $61-62 per barrel is still susceptible to sudden dips below $60 per barrel, should rumors of potential US-China trade talks turn out to be more of the market’s wishful thinking than reality.
OPEC+ Doubles Down on Flooding Policy. In yet another instance of Saturday diplomacy, OPEC+ members have agreed to raise collective output by 411,000 b/d in June, mirroring the fast-tracked unwinding started back a month ago, as Saudi Arabia seeks to regain market share lost to non-OPEC countries.
Shell Keeps Its Eyes on the Prize. London-based energy major Shell (LON:SHEL) is still considering a potential takeover bid for its embattled peer BP (NYSE:BP), holding talks with industry advisers on the feasibility of a giant deal that would create a giant worth more than $265 billion.
Saudi Arabia Cautiously Hikes Asian Prices. Saudi Aramco (TADAWUL:2222) hiked its Asia-bound formula prices for June-loading cargoes by a uniform $0.20 per barrel, sticking to a somewhat dovish pricing policy after the Dubai spot premium widened to 1.66/bbl in April, up $0.28/bbl from March.
Giant Merger Roils Canada’s Retail Landscape. US fuel distributor Sunoco (NYSE:SUN) agreed to buy Calgary-based Canadian retailer Parkland (TSE:PKI) in a deal valued at $9.1 billion, creating the largest fuel distributor across the Americas, however minority stakeholder Simpson Oil might seek to derail it.
Democrats Sue Trump Over Wind U-Turn. A coalition of Democratic states led by New York filed a lawsuit against the Trump administration, arguing that the US President’s pause on all federal wind energy approvals is unlawful as Trump failed to provide any detailed justification for the decision.
Trinidad Wants Guyana’s Gas. Running short of its own domestic production, Trinidad and Tobago is seeking a term supply agreement with Guyana to tap into their upcoming offshore gas projects developed by ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) as Venezuelan supply options were derailed by US sanctions.
Woodside Looking for New LNG Partners. Australia’s leading gas producer Woodside Energy (ASX:WDS) said it would seek to sell a further 20%-30% stake in its $17.5 billion Louisiana LNG project, having taken a FID last week and garnering $5.7 billion of financing from U.S. investment firm Stonepeak.
Asia Turns Its Back on King Coal. Asian thermal coal prices have plunged to a four-year low, with Indonesian lower calorific value coal trading below $50 per metric tonne whilst Australia’s Newcastle coal benchmark fell below the $100/mt threshold for the first time since June 2021 on weak Chinese buying.
Easing Trade Tensions Lift Copper. As markets are weighing the probability of US-China trade talks over the upcoming weeks, copper prices edged higher this week with the 3-month LME contract jumping to $9,470 per metric tonne, further buoyed by low Chinese stocks and a weaker dollar.
LNG Canada to Start Loading in June. Canada’s first export LNG project under development, the 14 mtpa Canada LNG, has completed the cooldown of its liquefied natural gas terminal in Kitimat, BC after it received a cargo earlier in April, and is on track to load its first ever LNG cargo in June.
Drillers Warn of Shale Peak Coming Soon. US shale firm Diamondback Energy (NASDAQ:FANG) warned that with WTI trending below $60 per barrel, US shale would start declining later in 2025, with the U.S. frac crew count already down 20% compared to January and rig count expected to fall another 10%.
Europe Eyes 2027 End to Russian Gas Imports. The European Commission will propose legal measures to end the EU’s imports of Russian gas and LNG by next month, seeking to ban any new commercial deals with Russian entities by the end of this year and winding down all imports by December 2027.
Iran Keeps on Exporting Oil Despite US Pressure. Iran exported 1.6 million b/d of oil in April, virtually unchanged compared to March levels, as Donald Trump’s ‘maximum pressure’ policy is yet to yield any tangible results in Tehran’s energy flows.
By Michael Kern for Oilprice.com
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