Rising supply from both OPEC+ and non-OPEC+ producers, slowing demand growth after the peak summer consumption, and uncertainties about demand amid inconsistent U.S. trade and tariff policies are set to keep oil prices subdued around current levels, analysts said in the monthly Reuters poll released on Friday.
The price of Brent Crude, the international benchmark, is expected to average $67.65 per barrel this year, according to nearly three dozen economists and analysts surveyed by Reuters. The forecast in the August poll is slightly lower compared to $67.84 expected in July.
So far this year, Brent crude oil prices have averaged around $70 per barrel, while they traded in the $67-$68 range on Friday.
The analysts polled by Reuters expect the U.S. benchmark, WTI Crude, to average $64.65 per barrel this year, compared to $64.61 a barrel projected in the July survey.
Early on Friday, WTI prices were in the $64 per barrel handle, as is the forecast in the Reuters poll.
Both benchmarks were trading down on Friday morning ET, but they were on track to extend a weekly gain from last week.
Analysts in the Reuters poll cited the OPEC+ supply hikes, the end of the peak demand season, and the uncertainty about demand stemming from the often unpredictable U.S. trade policies as key bearish drivers for prices.
“Crude prices remain range-bound, with geopolitical tensions being more than offset by expectations for an oversupplied market into the final quarter and beyond, as eight OPEC+ producers take aim at their raised production targets,” analysts at Saxo Bank wrote in a note on Friday.
Major investment banks expect Brent and WTI prices to slide in the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026 amid a growing market oversupply. Banks including Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and JPMorgan see Brent prices averaging $63.57 per barrel in the fourth quarter, a survey compiled by The Wall Street Journal showed this week. The banks expect the WTI price to average just above $60 per barrel, at $60.30, in the fourth quarter.
By Michael Kern for Oilprice.com
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