Technically, the 50-day moving average remains a key ceiling. A clean breakout would be a bullish development, but traders won’t really take notice until WTI pushes above the 200-day moving average at $61.60. That level is more significant from a trend-following perspective, and a sustained move above it could open the door to a quick run at the October 24 high at $62.59, followed by the 50% long-term retracement at $63.74.
Support is stacked below, with minor backing at $60.05 and more meaningful footing in the $59.27 to $58.50 retracement zone — an area that includes a swing bottom at $58.83. For now, the market’s caught in a tug-of-war between headline-driven short-term trading and heavier supply concerns.
Supply Concerns Offset Hopes for Demand Rebound
Fundamentally, crude remains pressured by oversupply, even as hopes for stronger demand flicker. OPEC+ recently paused its production hikes through Q1, but prior increases continue to weigh. Meanwhile, any near-term lift from a U.S. government reopening — expected to pass the House later today — could boost consumer sentiment and oil demand, though the effect may be muted in the face of current inventories.
Saxo Bank’s Ole Hansen summed it up: both WTI and Brent are “stuck,” with speculative flows driving most of the action. Traders seem to agree — the market’s been choppy, with no strong conviction either way.
IEA Walks Back Peak Oil Forecast, Sees Demand Growing into 2050
Adding to the demand-side debate, the International Energy Agency (IEA) on Wednesday made headlines by abandoning its earlier forecast that global oil demand would peak this decade. In its latest World Energy Outlook, the agency now projects that demand could continue rising through 2050 — a significant shift tied to its decision to model based on current policies rather than climate pledges. The move adds long-term support to the crude bull case, even if near-term fundamentals remain supply-heavy.
